AVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVA - Avista Corporation
$37.57
-0.66 (-1.73%)
▼
5d:
-4.04%
30d:
-10.93%
90d:
-8.19%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.46
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVA is currently trading at $37.57, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.50 to $41.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (14.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 147.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.50 -
$41.70
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.50 -
$41.70
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.52
Resistance Level
$39.18
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.47
Wall Street Target
$41.33
(+10.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
147.9%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 14.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.63
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$35.71
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$34.82
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$37.47
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 6.7%)
$67.96
(+81%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 6.7%)
$45.62
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 6.7%)
$38.78
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.76
Bull Case
$42.49
(+13%)
Analyst growth 1.0%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$38.62
(+3%)
Market implied 1.0%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$26.00
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.5 to 14.5
Stabilization Target:
$40.43
(+7.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 7:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alexis G Alexander
SELL
555 shares
2026-03-13
Bryan Alden Cox
SELL
1768 shares
2026-02-26
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