Avista (AVA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVA - Avista Corporation
$34.96
-0.13 (-0.37%)
▼
5d:
-0.26%
30d:
-7.12%
90d:
-15.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.10
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVA is currently trading at $34.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.58 to $37.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.6) compared to its historical average (14.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 147.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.33 (+17.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.33 (+17.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$35.58 -
$37.69
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($41.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.58 -
$37.69
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.50
Resistance Level
$37.05
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.58
Wall Street Target
$41.33
(+17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
147.9%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 14.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.58
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$32.14
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$30.76
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$35.19
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 6.7%)
$69.08
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 6.7%)
$42.61
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 6.7%)
$36.22
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.79
Bull Case
$38.60
(+10%)
Analyst growth -0.1%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$35.09
(0%)
Market implied -0.1%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$23.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 14.4
Stabilization Target:
$40.15
(+14.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 1:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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