Avista (AVA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVA - Avista Corporation
$36.92
0.07 (0.19%)
▲
5d:
+1.07%
30d:
+2.56%
90d:
-12.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.89
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVA is currently trading at $36.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.18 to $36.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.2) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 147.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVA scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.00 (+11.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVA scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.00 (+11.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$35.18 -
$36.51
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($41.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.18 -
$36.51
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.02
Resistance Level
$37.26
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.24
Wall Street Target
$41.00
(+11.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
147.9%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.03
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$35.17
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$34.33
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$37.07
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.0%)
$66.02
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 6.0%)
$44.01
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 6.0%)
$37.41
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.77
Bull Case
$40.81
(+11%)
Analyst growth 0.7%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$37.10
(+1%)
Market implied 0.7%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$25.06
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$39.88
(+8.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 21, 2026 8:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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