Avista (AVA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$40.21
+0.15 (+0.37%)
▲
5d:
+5.51%
30d:
+12.22%
90d:
+4.36%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (20%)
Quality Score
28/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$35.21 – $38.05
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
14.4x
FAIR
vs 14.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$40.67
+1.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$36.84 / $41.27
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AVA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.45
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVA is currently trading at $40.21, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.21 to $38.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVA scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVA scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$35.21 -
$38.05
Company Quality Score
28/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
20.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$35.21 -
$38.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$36.84
Resistance Level
$41.27
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.7% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 28/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.44
Wall Street Target
$40.67
(+1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
59.7%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 14.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.41
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$40.61
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$40.82
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$40.13
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.0%)
$65.93
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 6.0%)
$47.95
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 6.0%)
$40.75
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.97
Bull Case
$41.31
(+3%)
Analyst growth -6.3%, PE expands to 14.8
Base Case
$37.56
(-7%)
Market implied -6.3%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$27.24
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AVA)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 23, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish sentiment prevails on StockTwits regarding $AVA, with traders expecting a potential breakout due to differences between defense and commercial space stocks. No significant news articles were available.
Key Retail Themes:
Price difference between defense and commercial space stocks
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 12:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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