AVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVA - Avista Corporation
$40.45
-0.58 (-1.41%)
▼
5d:
-3.8%
30d:
-0.22%
90d:
-1.58%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.36
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVA is currently trading at $40.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.94 to $41.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.5) is in line with its historical norms (14.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$40.94 -
$41.97
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.83)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.94 -
$41.97
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.36
Resistance Level
$42.70
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.50
Wall Street Target
$41.83
(+3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 14.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.37
(0%)
2-Year Target
$40.29
(0%)
3-Year Target
$40.21
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$40.49
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 7.1%)
$71.09
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 7.1%)
$49.72
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 7.1%)
$42.26
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.48
Bull Case
$50.78
(+26%)
Analyst growth 12.5%, PE expands to 18.2
Base Case
$46.16
(+14%)
Market implied 12.5%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$27.90
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 14.6
Stabilization Target:
$40.74
(+0.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 5:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alexis G Alexander
SELL
555 shares
2026-03-13
Bryan Alden Cox
SELL
1768 shares
2026-02-26
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