AVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVA - Avista Corporation
$41.90
0.75 (1.82%)
▲
5d:
+1.21%
30d:
-0.38%
90d:
-0.45%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
20d
Get Alerted When AVA Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.11
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVA is currently trading at $41.90, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.40 to $42.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.0) is in line with its historical norms (14.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AVA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$40.40 -
$42.02
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.40 -
$42.02
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.51
Resistance Level
$42.04
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.02
Wall Street Target
$41.83
(-0.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
15.0 vs 14.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.36
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$42.83
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$43.30
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.81
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.2%)
$74.94
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 7.2%)
$51.67
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 7.2%)
$43.92
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.49
Bull Case
$50.38
(+20%)
Analyst growth 12.1%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$45.80
(+9%)
Market implied 12.1%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$27.79
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 4:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:02 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alexis G Alexander
SELL
555 shares
2026-03-13
Bryan Alden Cox
SELL
1768 shares
2026-02-26
Featured in Portfolios
AVA is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.
Top Rated Utilities - Diversified Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Utilities - Diversified by analyst ratings.
