Avista (AVA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVA - Avista Corporation
$37.13
-0.27 (-0.72%)
▼
5d:
-0.32%
30d:
-3.38%
90d:
-12.41%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.46
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVA is currently trading at $37.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.49 to $38.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.3) is in line with its historical norms (14.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 147.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AVA scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.33 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AVA scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.33 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$37.49 -
$38.79
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (69/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($41.33)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 69/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.49 -
$38.79
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.00
Resistance Level
$38.15
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.32
Wall Street Target
$41.33
(+11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
147.9%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 14.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.13
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$35.15
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$34.20
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$37.24
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.7%)
$68.30
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 6.7%)
$45.09
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 6.7%)
$38.33
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.77
Bull Case
$41.41
(+12%)
Analyst growth 0.7%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$37.65
(+1%)
Market implied 0.7%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$25.43
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 14.5
Stabilization Target:
$40.43
(+8.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 9:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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