AQN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AQN - Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp
$5.73
0.07 (1.33%)
▲
5d:
+2.6%
30d:
-3.13%
90d:
-10.41%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AQN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AQN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.59
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.95
3.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AQN is currently trading at $5.72, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.67 to $6.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.1) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.44, while resistance sits at $6.04.
Market Sentiment: AQN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.78 (+19.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.44, while resistance sits at $6.04.
Market Sentiment: AQN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.78 (+19.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$5.67 -
$6.00
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($6.78)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.67 -
$6.00
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.44
Resistance Level
$6.04
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.11
Wall Street Target
$6.78
(+19.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.7%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.41
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$5.17
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$4.95
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$5.65
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.6%)
$12.45
(+120%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 12.6%)
$8.07
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 12.6%)
$6.86
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$9.59
(+70%)
Analyst growth 54.0%, PE expands to 24.0
Base Case
$8.72
(+54%)
Market implied 54.0%, PE stable at 21.8
Bear Case
$3.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$6.45
(+14.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 3:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AQN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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