Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$5.56
-0.08 (-1.42%)
▼
5d:
-1.42%
30d:
+8.38%
90d:
-4.47%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (26%)
Quality Score
42/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$5.14 – $5.55
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.9x
FAIR
vs 15.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$6.38
+13.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$5.35 / $5.71
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AQN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.16
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.69
2.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AQN is currently trading at $5.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.14 to $5.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 53.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AQN scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.38 (+13.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AQN scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.38 (+13.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$5.14 -
$5.55
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$5.14 -
$5.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$5.35
Resistance Level
$5.71
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($6.38)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.85
Wall Street Target
$6.38
(+13.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
53.9%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 15.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.47
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$5.31
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$5.15
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$5.65
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.4%)
$11.48
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 12.4%)
$8.01
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 12.4%)
$6.81
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.23
Bull Case
$11.02
(+95%)
Analyst growth 77.0%, PE expands to 27.1
Base Case
$10.02
(+78%)
Market implied 77.0%, PE stable at 24.6
Bear Case
$3.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.9 to 15.2
Stabilization Target:
$6.19
(+9.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AQN)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Sep 23, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bearish sentiment prevails on StockTwits regarding $AQN, with one user expressing disappointment over the company's decision to move operations to the US and expressing a view that the stock is once again trading at penny stock levels.
Key Retail Themes:
Company Decision Making
Stock Price
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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