Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.32
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.10
2.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: AES is currently trading at $14.79, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.71 to $14.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.2) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.71 -
$14.79
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AES? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
AES is a global power company that operates in 15 countries. Its generation portfolio totals over 32 gigawatts, including renewable energy (50%), gas (32%), coal (16%), and oil (2%). AES has majority ownership and operates six electric utilities distributing power to more than 2.5 million customers.
