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Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.71
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: AES is currently trading at $14.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.76 to $14.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.76 -
$14.86
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AES? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
AES is a global power company that operates in 15 countries. Its generation portfolio totals over 32 gigawatts, including renewable energy (50%), gas (32%), coal (16%), and oil (2%). AES has majority ownership and operates six electric utilities distributing power to more than 2.5 million customers.
