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AES
AES Corporation
COGENERATION SERVICES & SMALL POWER PRODUCERS
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AES shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
AES is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today
SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; AES has been on it 2 days).
Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-11-10.
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.02
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: AES is currently trading at $14.92, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.90 to $15.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AES scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$14.90 -
$15.00
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$14.90 -
$15.00
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level$14.83
Resistance Level$15.05
Current TrendStrong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.00)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with 15.5% revenue growth
BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 74/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)6.26
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(+0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)-14.4%
Profit Margin13.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 6.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.96
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$15.01
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$15.05
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.1%)
$53.37
(+258%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 4.1%)
$16.82
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 4.1%)
$14.30
(-4%)
📈Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.49
Bull Case
$15.69
(+5%)
Analyst growth -4.3%, PE expands to 6.6
Base Case
$14.26
(-4%)
Market implied -4.3%, PE stable at 6.0
Bear Case
$10.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AES)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
The energy-storage market is experiencing significant growth, with 188 gigawatts expected to come online this year. $AES, ranked #5 in utilities, is gaining bullish sentiment on StockTwits.
Key Retail Themes:Energy storage market growthPositive sentiment towards $AES
AES is a global power company that operates in 15 countries. Its generation portfolio totals over 32 gigawatts, including renewable energy (50%), gas (32%), coal (16%), and oil (2%). AES has majority ownership and operates six electric utilities distributing power to more than 2.5 million customers.
