AES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AES - AES Corporation
$14.68
-0.17 (-1.14%)
▼
5d:
-1.08%
30d:
+0.27%
90d:
+1.59%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.95
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AES is currently trading at $14.68, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.65 to $14.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.2) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 951.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$14.65 -
$14.82
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.65 -
$14.82
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.65
Resistance Level
$14.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.17
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
951.1%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 6.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.67
(0%)
2-Year Target
$14.65
(0%)
3-Year Target
$14.64
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$14.71
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 4.0%)
$55.45
(+278%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 4.0%)
$16.50
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 4.0%)
$14.03
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.92
Bull Case
$20.24
(+38%)
Analyst growth 23.9%, PE expands to 8.5
Base Case
$18.40
(+25%)
Market implied 23.9%, PE stable at 7.7
Bear Case
$10.10
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 6.2
Stabilization Target:
$14.75
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 6:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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