AstraZeneca (AZN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AZN - AstraZeneca PLC
$164.03
3.86 (2.41%)
▲
5d:
+0.82%
30d:
+4.32%
90d:
-8.23%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AZN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 18.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AZN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 18.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$426.12
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$264.59
38.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AZN is currently trading at $164.03, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $158.61 to $165.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.1) compared to its historical average (25.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AZN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $165.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AZN scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $212.54 (+32.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AZN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $165.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AZN scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $212.54 (+32.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$158.61 -
$165.19
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.7% below Wall St target ($212.54)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$158.61 -
$165.19
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.74
Resistance Level
$165.74
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.10
Wall Street Target
$212.54
(+32.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Profit Margin
17.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 25.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$144.15
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$129.74
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$116.76
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→26)
$213.66
(+33%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.0%)
$330.59
(+106%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 13.0%)
$231.09
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 13.0%)
$196.43
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.80
Bull Case
$293.36
(+83%)
Analyst growth 67.1%, PE expands to 25.8
Base Case
$266.69
(+67%)
Market implied 67.1%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$108.56
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 25.8
Stabilization Target:
$293.09
(+83.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+83.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 14, 2026 1:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AZN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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