AstraZeneca (AZN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AZN - AstraZeneca PLC
$156.90
-0.80 (-0.51%)
▼
5d:
-5.81%
30d:
-2.93%
90d:
-17.49%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 30, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AZN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AZN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$450.47
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$279.71
43.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AZN is currently trading at $156.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $160.14 to $166.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.6) compared to its historical average (24.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AZN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $156.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AZN scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $212.17 (+35.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AZN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $156.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AZN scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $212.17 (+35.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$160.14 -
$166.65
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.2% below Wall St target ($212.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$160.14 -
$166.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.41
Resistance Level
$169.35
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.55
Wall Street Target
$212.17
(+35.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Profit Margin
17.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 24.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$141.21
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$127.09
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$114.38
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→25)
$210.20
(+34%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 14.8%)
$357.63
(+128%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 14.8%)
$237.53
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 14.8%)
$201.90
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.68
Bull Case
$300.72
(+92%)
Analyst growth 73.4%, PE expands to 26.0
Base Case
$273.38
(+74%)
Market implied 73.4%, PE stable at 23.6
Bear Case
$107.24
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.5 to 24.9
Stabilization Target:
$288.34
(+83.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+83.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 04, 2026 8:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:12 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is AZN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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