CHMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHMI - CHERRY HILL MORTGAGE INVESTMENT CORPORATION
$2.41
0.02 (0.84%)
▲
5d:
+6.64%
30d:
+5.24%
90d:
-6.95%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHMI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHMI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.71
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.93
17.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHMI is currently trading at $2.41, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.25 to $2.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.3) is in line with its historical norms (4.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.22, while resistance sits at $2.50.
Market Sentiment: CHMI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.00 (+25.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.22, while resistance sits at $2.50.
Market Sentiment: CHMI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.00 (+25.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$2.25 -
$2.35
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.5% below Wall St target ($3.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.25 -
$2.35
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.22
Resistance Level
$2.50
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.35
Wall Street Target
$3.00
(+25.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-34.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.5%
Profit Margin
35.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.4 vs 4.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.39
(0%)
2-Year Target
$2.38
(0%)
3-Year Target
$2.38
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$2.41
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 91.7%)
$11.44
(+379%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.3, Growth: 91.7%)
$2.46
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.7, Growth: 91.7%)
$2.09
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.15
Bull Case
$5.37
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$4.88
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$1.66
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.3 to 4.4
Stabilization Target:
$2.42
(+1.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 07, 2026 4:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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