CHMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHMI - CHERRY HILL MORTGAGE INVESTMENT CORPORATION
$2.87
-0.03 (-1.03%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.71%
30d:
-0.69%
90d:
+21.1%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CHMI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CHMI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$0.04
Based on -43.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHMI is currently trading at $2.87, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.65 to $3.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 5.2) compared to its historical average (4.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHMI scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHMI scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$2.65 -
$3.03
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($3.10)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.2% growth with 27.6% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.65 -
$3.03
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.87
Resistance Level
$2.98
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.22
Wall Street Target
$3.10
(+8.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.5%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.2% premium
PE vs Historical
5.2 vs 4.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.02
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$3.18
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$3.34
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5â5)
PE COMPRESSION
$2.88
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -90.1%)
$10.80
(+276%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.2, Growth: -90.1%)
$2.79
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.4, Growth: -90.1%)
$2.37
(-17%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.21
Bull Case
$6.38
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$5.80
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.8
Bear Case
$1.97
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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