CHMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHMI - CHERRY HILL MORTGAGE INVESTMENT CORPORATION
$2.94
0.01 (0.34%)
▲
5d:
+0.68%
30d:
+30.09%
90d:
+20.0%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHMI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHMI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$0.04
Based on -43.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHMI is currently trading at $2.94, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.24 to $2.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 5.3) compared to its historical average (4.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $2.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHMI scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Implied Volatility is high (100th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $2.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHMI scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Implied Volatility is high (100th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$2.24 -
$2.81
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
100th percentile
(ELEVATED)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
21.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Options expensive (IV 100th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($3.10)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.5% growth with 27.6% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.24 -
$2.81
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.28
(9.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.50
Resistance Level
$2.98
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.35
Wall Street Target
$3.10
(+5.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.5%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.5% premium
PE vs Historical
5.4 vs 4.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.13
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$3.33
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$3.55
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→4)
PE COMPRESSION
$2.92
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -90.1%)
$10.74
(+265%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.3, Growth: -90.1%)
$2.86
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.4, Growth: -90.1%)
$2.36
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.21
Bull Case
$6.45
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$5.86
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$1.99
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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