Ellington Financial (EFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EFC - Ellington Financial Inc. Common Stock
$12.89
-0.15 (-1.15%)
▼
5d:
-3.45%
30d:
-5.36%
90d:
-5.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EFC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EFC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.14
Based on -0.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EFC is currently trading at $12.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.24 to $13.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EFC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $12.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EFC scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.86 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EFC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $12.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EFC scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.86 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.24 -
$13.65
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($14.86)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.24 -
$13.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.86
Resistance Level
$13.66
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.59
Wall Street Target
$14.86
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Profit Margin
51.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.82
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$12.60
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$12.39
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$12.96
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -5.4%)
$33.76
(+159%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: -5.4%)
$11.04
(-15%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: -5.4%)
$9.38
(-28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.59
Bull Case
$18.14
(+39%)
Analyst growth 24.4%, PE expands to 9.2
Base Case
$16.49
(+27%)
Market implied 24.4%, PE stable at 8.3
Bear Case
$9.02
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$13.64
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 4:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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