Ellington Financial (EFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EFC - Ellington Financial Inc. Common Stock
$11.69
-0.14 (-1.18%)
▼
5d:
-5.5%
30d:
-11.84%
90d:
-13.21%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EFC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EFC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.14
Based on -0.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EFC is currently trading at $11.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.32 to $13.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.9) compared to its historical average (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EFC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EFC scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.86 (+27.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EFC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EFC scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.86 (+27.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.32 -
$13.43
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (22/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.1% below Wall St target ($14.86)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.32 -
$13.43
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.51
Resistance Level
$12.79
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.91
Wall Street Target
$14.86
(+27.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Profit Margin
51.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 6.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.11
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$10.55
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$10.02
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$11.70
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -5.4%)
$34.15
(+192%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: -5.4%)
$9.90
(-15%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: -5.4%)
$8.41
(-28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.60
Bull Case
$16.08
(+38%)
Analyst growth 23.6%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$14.62
(+25%)
Market implied 23.6%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$8.04
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$13.64
(+16.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 9:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is EFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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