Ellington Financial (EFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EFC - Ellington Financial Inc. Common Stock
$11.42
-0.06 (-0.52%)
▼
5d:
-2.31%
30d:
-10.08%
90d:
-14.01%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
Get Alerted When EFC Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EFC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EFC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.85
Based on -0.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EFC is currently trading at $11.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.54 to $12.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.8) compared to its historical average (6.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EFC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.64 (+28.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EFC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.64 (+28.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.54 -
$12.45
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.2% below Wall St target ($14.64)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.54 -
$12.45
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.33
Resistance Level
$12.08
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.79
Wall Street Target
$14.64
(+28.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Profit Margin
51.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 6.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.81
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$10.24
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$9.70
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$11.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -5.6%)
$32.93
(+188%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: -5.6%)
$9.60
(-16%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: -5.6%)
$8.16
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.61
Bull Case
$15.47
(+36%)
Analyst growth 22.5%, PE expands to 7.8
Base Case
$14.07
(+23%)
Market implied 22.5%, PE stable at 7.1
Bear Case
$7.81
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 6.8
Stabilization Target:
$13.41
(+17.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 21, 2026 11:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:44 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is EFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated REIT - Mortgage Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Mortgage by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RITM
Rithm Capital Corp. |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$13 | 67 BUY |
|
NLY
Annaly Capital Managemen… |
BUY
13 analysts |
$23 | 78 BUY |
|
STWD
Starwood Property Trust … |
STRONG BUY
9 analysts |
$19 | 55 HOLD |
|
RWT
Redwood Trust Inc |
STRONG BUY
9 analysts |
$5 | 55 HOLD |
|
MITT
AG Mortgage Investment T… |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$9 | 57 HOLD |