CTRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CTRE - CareTrust REIT, Inc
$39.58
-0.18 (-0.45%)
▼
5d:
+2.09%
30d:
-6.54%
90d:
-3.49%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CTRE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CTRE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.09
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTRE is currently trading at $39.58, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.57 to $42.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.3) is in line with its historical norms (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.97, while resistance sits at $41.04.
Market Sentiment: CTRE scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.38 (+14.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.97, while resistance sits at $41.04.
Market Sentiment: CTRE scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.38 (+14.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$39.57 -
$42.45
Company Quality Score
76/100
(STRONG BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($45.38)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 80/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.57 -
$42.45
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.97
Resistance Level
$41.04
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.30
Wall Street Target
$45.38
(+14.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Profit Margin
62.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 22.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.38
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$39.19
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$38.99
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$39.69
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -2.2%)
$37.02
(+-7%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: -2.2%)
$33.32
(-16%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -2.2%)
$28.32
(-28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.60
Bull Case
$48.52
(+23%)
Analyst growth 10.9%, PE expands to 27.3
Base Case
$44.11
(+11%)
Market implied 10.9%, PE stable at 24.9
Bear Case
$27.04
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$40.29
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 9:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CTRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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