CTRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CTRE - CareTrust REIT, Inc
$41.22
-0.72 (-1.72%)
▼
5d:
-4.05%
30d:
-1.29%
90d:
+5.18%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CTRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CTRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.81
Based on 0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTRE is currently trading at $41.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.89 to $42.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.1) is in line with its historical norms (22.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$39.89 -
$42.63
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.15)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.89 -
$42.63
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.94
Resistance Level
$43.62
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.07
Wall Street Target
$45.15
(+7.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Profit Margin
64.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
24.1 vs 22.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.82
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$43.72
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$44.64
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.1, Growth: -3.5%)
$37.73
(+-10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: -3.5%)
$32.50
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: -3.5%)
$27.62
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.55
Bull Case
$51.49
(+23%)
Analyst growth 12.4%, PE expands to 29.6
Base Case
$46.81
(+12%)
Market implied 12.4%, PE stable at 26.9
Bear Case
$28.32
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 4:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CTRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CTRE price and gamma walls.
