CTRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CTRE - CareTrust REIT, Inc
$38.80
1.31 (3.49%)
▲
5d:
+4.75%
30d:
-5.39%
90d:
+3.6%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CTRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CTRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.45
Based on 0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTRE is currently trading at $38.80, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.08 to $40.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.3) is in line with its historical norms (22.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.50, while resistance sits at $40.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.31 (+16.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.50, while resistance sits at $40.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.31 (+16.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.08 -
$40.96
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($45.31)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.08 -
$40.96
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.50
Resistance Level
$40.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.27
Wall Street Target
$45.31
(+16.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Profit Margin
64.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 22.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.72
(0%)
2-Year Target
$38.64
(0%)
3-Year Target
$38.57
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→22)
$38.80
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -3.5%)
$34.91
(+-10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: -3.5%)
$34.14
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: -3.5%)
$29.02
(-25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.58
Bull Case
$45.48
(+17%)
Analyst growth 10.3%, PE expands to 26.1
Base Case
$41.35
(+7%)
Market implied 10.3%, PE stable at 23.7
Bear Case
$25.49
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 22.4
Stabilization Target:
$39.03
(+0.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CTRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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