CareTrust REIT (CTRE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CTRE - CareTrust REIT, Inc
$36.62
0.97 (2.72%)
▲
5d:
+0.08%
30d:
-1.48%
90d:
-15.33%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CTRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CTRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.12
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTRE is currently trading at $36.62, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.06 to $37.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.5) compared to its historical average (22.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CTRE scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.64 (+19.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CTRE scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.64 (+19.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$36.06 -
$37.61
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.64)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 65/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.06 -
$37.61
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.59
Resistance Level
$37.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.50
Wall Street Target
$43.64
(+19.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
43.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Profit Margin
62.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 22.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.97
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$33.40
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$31.90
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→22)
$36.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.4%)
$48.78
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 9.4%)
$47.90
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: 9.4%)
$40.72
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.60
Bull Case
$46.02
(+26%)
Analyst growth 17.3%, PE expands to 24.5
Base Case
$41.83
(+14%)
Market implied 17.3%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$24.24
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.5 to 22.4
Stabilization Target:
$42.06
(+14.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CTRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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