CareTrust REIT (CTRE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CTRE - CareTrust REIT, Inc
$38.62
-0.20 (-0.52%)
▼
5d:
-2.5%
30d:
-1.38%
90d:
+5.09%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CTRE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CTRE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.38
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTRE is currently trading at $38.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.86 to $40.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.9) is in line with its historical norms (22.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.15 (+16.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.15 (+16.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.86 -
$40.44
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CTRE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($45.15)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (44/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.86 -
$40.44
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.37
Resistance Level
$40.13
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.87
Wall Street Target
$45.15
(+16.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Profit Margin
62.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.9 vs 22.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.20
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$37.78
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$37.36
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$38.61
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 2.1%)
$41.08
(+6%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 2.1%)
$37.89
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 2.1%)
$32.21
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.59
Bull Case
$47.43
(+23%)
Analyst growth 11.1%, PE expands to 26.9
Base Case
$43.12
(+12%)
Market implied 11.1%, PE stable at 24.4
Bear Case
$26.40
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.9 to 22.6
Stabilization Target:
$39.91
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CTRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CTRE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CTRE price and gamma walls.
