CTRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CTRE - CareTrust REIT, Inc
$40.33
0.11 (0.27%)
▲
5d:
-2.56%
30d:
+6.89%
90d:
+1.61%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CTRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CTRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.63
Based on 0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTRE is currently trading at $40.33, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.20 to $40.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.1) is in line with its historical norms (22.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CTRE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.31 (+12.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CTRE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.31 (+12.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$37.20 -
$40.85
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($45.31)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.20 -
$40.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.50
Resistance Level
$40.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.14
Wall Street Target
$45.31
(+12.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Profit Margin
64.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
23.1 vs 22.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.69
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$41.06
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$41.43
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$40.27
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.1, Growth: -3.5%)
$36.28
(+-10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: -3.5%)
$34.14
(-15%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: -3.5%)
$29.02
(-28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.58
Bull Case
$48.79
(+21%)
Analyst growth 10.3%, PE expands to 28.0
Base Case
$44.36
(+10%)
Market implied 10.3%, PE stable at 25.5
Bear Case
$27.35
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CTRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CTRE price and gamma walls.
