CVNA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVNA - Carvana Co.
$67.34
-3.32 (-4.70%)
▼
5d:
+2.29%
30d:
-3.85%
90d:
-7.05%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
10d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CVNA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 27.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CVNA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 27.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.31
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVNA is currently trading at $67.34, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.89 to $69.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 34.2) compared to its historical average (16.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 27.6% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVNA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $63.75, while resistance sits at $72.77. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVNA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.90 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVNA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $63.75, while resistance sits at $72.77. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVNA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.90 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$64.89 -
$69.52
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($91.90)
- BEARISH: Market expects 27.6% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.89 -
$69.52
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.75
Resistance Level
$72.77
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.17
Wall Street Target
$91.90
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+27.6% premium
PE vs Historical
34.2 vs 16.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+27.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.93
(+28%)
2-Year Target
$109.64
(+63%)
3-Year Target
$139.90
(+108%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$67.55
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.2, Growth: 32.8%)
$157.56
(+134%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.0, Growth: 32.8%)
$96.86
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 32.8%)
$76.07
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (34x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.73
Bull Case
$88.53
(+32%)
Analyst growth 13.9%, PE expands to 44.9
Base Case
$80.48
(+20%)
Market implied 13.9%, PE stable at 40.8
Bear Case
$48.05
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 18, 2026 5:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVNA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Thomas Taira
SELL
3770 shares
2026-04-08
Benjamin E Huston
SELL
10000 shares
2026-04-01
Mark W Jenkins
SELL
12750 shares
2026-04-01
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