CARG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CARG - CarGurus, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$36.24
0.24 (0.67%)
▲
5d:
+8.6%
30d:
+3.13%
90d:
-0.6%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CARG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CARG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.64
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.17
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CARG is currently trading at $36.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.14 to $36.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CARG is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $32.60, while resistance sits at $37.78.
Market Sentiment: CARG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CARG is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $32.60, while resistance sits at $37.78.
Market Sentiment: CARG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$33.14 -
$36.02
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($37.77)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.9% growth with 14.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.14 -
$36.02
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.26
(9.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.60
Resistance Level
$37.79
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.40
Wall Street Target
$37.77
(+4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.4%
Profit Margin
15.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.57
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$36.90
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$37.23
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$36.34
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 15.9%)
$94.44
(+161%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 15.9%)
$56.47
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 15.9%)
$48.00
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$60.94
(+68%)
Analyst growth 53.9%, PE expands to 20.8
Base Case
$55.40
(+53%)
Market implied 53.9%, PE stable at 19.0
Bear Case
$24.48
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 12:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CARG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jennifer Ladd Hanson
SELL
567 shares
2026-04-02
Matthew Todd Quinn
SELL
4341 shares
2026-04-02
Dafna Sarnoff
SELL
5445 shares
2026-04-02
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Advanced CARG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CARG price and gamma walls.
