CVNA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVNA - Carvana Co.
$65.83
-1.29 (-1.92%)
▼
5d:
-4.04%
30d:
-5.43%
90d:
+0.67%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
15d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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2 traders called CVNA this week
33% bullish • 2 bearish
33% bullish • 2 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CVNA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CVNA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.99
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVNA is currently trading at $65.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.59 to $69.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 31.4) compared to its historical average (15.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 25.4% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVNA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $61.03, while resistance sits at $73.55.
Market Sentiment: CVNA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.14 (+40.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVNA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $61.03, while resistance sits at $73.55.
Market Sentiment: CVNA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.14 (+40.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$64.59 -
$69.03
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.0% below Wall St target ($92.14)
- BEARISH: Market expects 25.4% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.59 -
$69.03
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.03
Resistance Level
$73.55
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.36
Wall Street Target
$92.14
(+40.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+25.4% premium
PE vs Historical
31.4 vs 15.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+25.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.55
(+25%)
2-Year Target
$103.52
(+57%)
3-Year Target
$129.81
(+97%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$65.81
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.4, Growth: 33.6%)
$157.05
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 33.6%)
$109.06
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: 33.6%)
$79.62
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.72
Bull Case
$90.10
(+37%)
Analyst growth 22.0%, PE expands to 42.9
Base Case
$81.91
(+24%)
Market implied 22.0%, PE stable at 39.0
Bear Case
$45.64
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVNA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Thomas Taira
SELL
3770 shares
2026-04-08
Benjamin E Huston
SELL
10000 shares
2026-04-01
Mark W Jenkins
SELL
12750 shares
2026-04-01
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