Carvana (CVNA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVNA - Carvana Co.
$70.45
0.17 (0.24%)
â˛
5d:
-4.06%
30d:
-2.8%
90d:
+3.88%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $74.59 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CVNA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 17.1% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CVNA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 17.1% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$85.18
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVNA is currently trading at $70.45, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.23 to $74.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 31.3) compared to its historical average (19.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 17.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVNA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $69.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CVNA scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.97 (+18.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVNA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $69.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CVNA scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.97 (+18.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$69.23 -
$74.57
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CVNA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($82.97)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 17.1% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.23 -
$74.57
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.99
Resistance Level
$76.44
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.33
Wall Street Target
$82.98
(+18.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
61.5%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+17.1% premium
PE vs Historical
31.3 vs 19.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+17.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.30
(+17%)
2-Year Target
$96.37
(+37%)
3-Year Target
$112.85
(+61%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31â20)
PE COMPRESSION
$70.24
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.3, Growth: 45.1%)
$214.48
(+205%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 45.1%)
$138.08
(+97%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 45.1%)
$117.37
(+67%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.86
Bull Case
$97.39
(+39%)
Analyst growth 20.6%, PE expands to 43.4
Base Case
$88.53
(+26%)
Market implied 20.6%, PE stable at 39.5
Bear Case
$49.92
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 1:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVNA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Thomas Taira
SELL
3770 shares
2026-04-08
Benjamin E Huston
SELL
10000 shares
2026-04-01
Mark W Jenkins
SELL
12750 shares
2026-04-01
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Advanced CVNA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CVNA price and gamma walls.
