Carvana (CVNA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$73.02
-3.24 (-4.25%)
▼
5d:
+2.44%
30d:
+22.7%
90d:
+0.75%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (21%)
Quality Score
33/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$58.12 – $70.47
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
35.0x
STRETCHED
vs 21.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$81.14
+11.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$57.94 / $78.48
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CVNA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 29, 2026 at $68.31 · last confirmed Nov 6, 2026
Strength: 8.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.15
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVNA is currently trading at $73.02, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.12 to $70.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 35.0) compared to its historical average (21.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 18.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVNA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.94, while resistance sits at $78.48. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVNA scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.14 (+11.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVNA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.94, while resistance sits at $78.48. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVNA scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.14 (+11.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$58.12 -
$70.47
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
20.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$58.12 -
$70.47
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$57.94
Resistance Level
$78.48
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding CVNA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($81.14)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 18.2% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.99
Wall Street Target
$81.14
(+11.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
85.7%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+18.2% premium
PE vs Historical
35.0 vs 21.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+18.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.31
(+18%)
2-Year Target
$102.02
(+40%)
3-Year Target
$120.59
(+65%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$73.06
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.0, Growth: 28.8%)
$155.90
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 28.8%)
$88.49
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 28.8%)
$75.21
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (35x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.08
Bull Case
$84.16
(+15%)
Analyst growth 0.3%, PE expands to 40.3
Base Case
$76.51
(+5%)
Market implied 0.3%, PE stable at 36.7
Bear Case
$51.86
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CVNA)
Bearish
4 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
2
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bearish sentiment dominates on StockTwits regarding CVNA, with traders warning against buying and predicting potential losses. A former car finance manager shares advice on how to save money when buying a car by repeatedly saying no to add-ons.
Key Retail Themes:
Bearish sentiment on CVNA
Advice on saving money when buying a car
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 10, 2026 9:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVNA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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