What is the fair value of CVNA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for CVNA to be between $64.44 and $73.74. The current price is $62.79.

What is the analyst price target for CVNA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for CVNA is $82.97. This implies a potential upside of 32.7% from current levels.

Carvana (CVNA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CVNA - Carvana Co.

RETAIL-AUTO DEALERS & GASOLINE STATIONS

$62.79

0.25 (0.40%) ▲

5d: -2.17%

30d: -13.01%

90d: -8.47%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your CVNA Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 29, 2026 at $63.62 · last confirmed Oct 1, 2026

Strength: 8.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVNA trades at premium valuation expecting 10.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$89.97

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$55.87

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CVNA is currently trading at $62.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.44 to $73.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 27.3) compared to its historical average (20.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CVNA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $58.92, while resistance sits at $69.20.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.97 (+32.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $64.44 - $73.74

Company Quality Score 56/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 78.6%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 32.7% below Wall St target ($82.97)
NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 10.7% growth which is achievable
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $64.44 - $73.74

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $58.92

Resistance Level $69.20

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 1, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 27.34

Wall Street Target $82.98 (+32.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 52.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 61.5%

Profit Margin 6.3%

Valuation Premium vs History +10.7% premium

PE vs Historical 27.3 vs 20.2 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +10.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $69.23 (+11%)

2-Year Target $76.64 (+23%)

3-Year Target $84.84 (+36%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 27→20) PE COMPRESSION $62.68 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 27.3, Growth: 45.8%) $193.72 (+210%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 45.8%) $144.53 (+131%)

Bear: (PE: 17.3, Growth: 45.8%) $122.85 (+96%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 33.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.89

Bull Case $84.69 (+35%)

Analyst growth 21.0%, PE expands to 37.0

Base Case $76.99 (+23%)

Market implied 21.0%, PE stable at 33.7

Bear Case $43.26 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 01, 2026 2:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:25 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Thomas Taira SELL 3770 shares 2026-04-08

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Advanced CVNA Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CVNA price and gamma walls.

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