FCPT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FCPT - Four Corners Property Trust, Inc.
$25.60
0.06 (0.23%)
▲
5d:
-1.8%
30d:
+4.36%
90d:
+0.12%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FCPT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FCPT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.13
Based on 4.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FCPT is currently trading at $25.60, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.91 to $26.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.4) is in line with its historical norms (20.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCPT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCPT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$24.91 -
$26.11
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($28.11)
- BEARISH: Market expects 2.5% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.91 -
$26.11
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.10
Resistance Level
$26.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.45
Wall Street Target
$28.11
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.6%
Profit Margin
38.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
22.5 vs 20.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.24
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$26.90
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$27.57
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.54
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.5, Growth: 4.4%)
$25.63
(+0%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 4.4%)
$23.67
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 4.4%)
$20.12
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.08
Bull Case
$29.66
(+16%)
Analyst growth 5.6%, PE expands to 26.0
Base Case
$26.96
(+5%)
Market implied 5.6%, PE stable at 23.7
Bear Case
$17.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 8:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FCPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
William H Lenehan
BUY
7865 shares
2026-03-06
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