Four Corners Property Trust (FCPT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$23.39
-0.14 (-0.59%)
▼
5d:
-1.27%
30d:
+9.15%
90d:
-7.03%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (26%)
Quality Score
29/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$21.34 – $23.09
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
20.6x
FAIR
vs 20.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$25.89
+10.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$22.03 / $24.08
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FCPT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.83
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.46
17.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FCPT is currently trading at $23.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.34 to $23.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.6) is in line with its historical norms (20.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCPT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FCPT scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.89 (+10.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCPT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FCPT scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.89 (+10.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.34 -
$23.09
Company Quality Score
29/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$21.34 -
$23.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$22.03
Resistance Level
$24.08
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.89)
- WARNING: Composite score 29/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.57
Wall Street Target
$25.89
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.4%
Profit Margin
37.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 20.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.32
(0%)
2-Year Target
$23.25
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$23.18
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
$23.32
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 61.1%)
$23.82
(+2%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 61.1%)
$22.99
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 61.1%)
$19.55
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.08
Bull Case
$27.25
(+17%)
Analyst growth 5.3%, PE expands to 24.0
Base Case
$24.77
(+6%)
Market implied 5.3%, PE stable at 21.8
Bear Case
$16.00
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 20.7
Stabilization Target:
$23.53
(+0.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (FCPT)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 3, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
CEO William H. Lenehan's recent purchase of 10,000 shares of $FCPT at $22.61 adds to bullish sentiment on StockTwits.
Key Retail Themes:
CEO buy
Bullish sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FCPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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