EPRT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
$31.04
0.41 (1.34%)
▲
5d:
+1.34%
30d:
-0.89%
90d:
+1.17%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EPRT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EPRT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.46
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EPRT is currently trading at $31.04, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.65 to $32.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.4) is in line with its historical norms (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $31.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EPRT scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.06 (+19.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $31.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EPRT scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.06 (+19.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$30.65 -
$32.48
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (81/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($37.06)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 81/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.65 -
$32.48
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.05
Resistance Level
$31.64
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.45
Wall Street Target
$37.06
(+19.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Profit Margin
43.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.5 vs 22.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.92
(0%)
2-Year Target
$30.79
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$30.67
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$31.01
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.5, Growth: 3.2%)
$34.08
(+10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 3.2%)
$30.71
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 3.2%)
$26.10
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.31
Bull Case
$35.56
(+15%)
Analyst growth 5.5%, PE expands to 25.7
Base Case
$32.33
(+4%)
Market implied 5.5%, PE stable at 23.4
Bear Case
$20.83
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.5 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$31.39
(+1.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 13, 2026 10:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EPRT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
A Joseph Peil
SELL
19657 shares
2026-03-20
Robert Webb Salisbury
SELL
5851 shares
2026-03-20
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