EPRT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
$30.35
0.89 (3.02%)
▲
5d:
+0.3%
30d:
-3.28%
90d:
-3.04%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EPRT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EPRT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.31
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EPRT is currently trading at $30.35, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.83 to $31.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.7) is in line with its historical norms (22.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: EPRT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.05 (+22.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: EPRT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.05 (+22.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$29.83 -
$31.09
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 22.1% below Wall St target ($37.05)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.83 -
$31.09
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.46
Resistance Level
$31.60
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.68
Wall Street Target
$37.05
(+22.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Profit Margin
43.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.7 vs 22.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.83
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$29.33
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$28.83
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$30.32
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.5%)
$34.78
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.7, Growth: 4.5%)
$34.61
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.4, Growth: 4.5%)
$29.42
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.27
Bull Case
$35.73
(+18%)
Analyst growth 10.2%, PE expands to 25.5
Base Case
$32.48
(+7%)
Market implied 10.2%, PE stable at 23.2
Bear Case
$20.03
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.7 to 22.8
Stabilization Target:
$31.92
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EPRT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
A Joseph Peil
SELL
19657 shares
2026-03-20
Robert Webb Salisbury
SELL
5851 shares
2026-03-20
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