EPRT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
$31.29
0.02 (0.06%)
▲
5d:
-3.25%
30d:
+4.27%
90d:
-0.45%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EPRT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EPRT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.31
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EPRT is currently trading at $31.29, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.36 to $32.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.4) is in line with its historical norms (22.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.06 (+18.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.06 (+18.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$30.36 -
$32.48
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($37.06)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.36 -
$32.48
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.97
Resistance Level
$33.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.35
Wall Street Target
$37.06
(+18.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Profit Margin
43.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 22.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.10
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$30.92
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$30.73
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$31.35
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 4.5%)
$35.68
(+14%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 4.5%)
$33.10
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 4.5%)
$28.13
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.29
Bull Case
$37.33
(+19%)
Analyst growth 8.5%, PE expands to 26.7
Base Case
$33.94
(+9%)
Market implied 8.5%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$21.26
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 22.8
Stabilization Target:
$31.92
(+2.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EPRT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
A Joseph Peil
SELL
19657 shares
2026-03-20
Robert Webb Salisbury
SELL
5851 shares
2026-03-20
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