EPRT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
$25.90
0.30 (1.17%)
▲
5d:
-2.37%
30d:
-13.58%
90d:
-16.13%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EPRT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EPRT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.62
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EPRT is currently trading at $25.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.52 to $30.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.3) compared to its historical average (22.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EPRT scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.40 (+42.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EPRT scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.40 (+42.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$26.52 -
$30.09
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.2% below Wall St target ($36.40)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 27% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.52 -
$30.09
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.37
Resistance Level
$27.29
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.28
Wall Street Target
$36.40
(+42.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Profit Margin
43.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 22.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.91
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$22.33
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$20.86
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→22)
$25.55
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 4.5%)
$32.57
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 4.5%)
$29.19
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: 4.5%)
$24.81
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.29
Bull Case
$30.81
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.5%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$28.01
(+9%)
Market implied 8.5%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$17.55
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 22.4
Stabilization Target:
$31.36
(+22.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EPRT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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