EPRT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
$26.26
1.37 (5.50%)
▲
5d:
+1.16%
30d:
-2.27%
90d:
-18.8%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EPRT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EPRT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.22
Based on -16.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EPRT is currently trading at $26.26, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.33 to $27.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.5) compared to its historical average (22.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.73 (+32.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.73 (+32.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$25.33 -
$27.01
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.2% below Wall St target ($34.73)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.33 -
$27.01
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.71
Resistance Level
$26.57
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.52
Wall Street Target
$34.73
(+32.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Profit Margin
43.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 22.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.18
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$24.15
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$23.16
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→22)
$26.33
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -37.0%)
$26.42
(+1%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: -37.0%)
$25.97
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: -37.0%)
$22.07
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.25
Bull Case
$29.46
(+12%)
Analyst growth 7.6%, PE expands to 21.9
Base Case
$26.78
(+2%)
Market implied 7.6%, PE stable at 19.9
Bear Case
$16.93
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.5 to 22.2
Stabilization Target:
$29.86
(+13.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EPRT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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