GCMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCMG - GCM Grosvenor Inc. Class A Common Stock
$13.17
0.69 (5.53%)
▲
5d:
+5.19%
30d:
+2.01%
90d:
+20.38%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GCMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GCMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.83
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.55
2.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCMG is currently trading at $13.17, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.22 to $13.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.5) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+13.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+13.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$12.22 -
$13.46
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($15.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.22 -
$13.46
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.62
Resistance Level
$13.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.52
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
104.4%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.60
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$14.05
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$14.52
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.22
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 21.8%)
$39.37
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 21.8%)
$23.77
(+81%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 21.8%)
$20.21
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$27.46
(+109%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.5
Base Case
$24.96
(+90%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.0
Bear Case
$8.49
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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