GCMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCMG - GCM Grosvenor Inc. Class A Common Stock
$9.98
-0.53 (-5.04%)
▼
5d:
-7.51%
30d:
-9.76%
90d:
-14.48%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GCMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GCMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.54
Based on 13.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.37
25.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCMG is currently trading at $9.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.53 to $11.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.5) compared to its historical average (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 104.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.25 (+42.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.25 (+42.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.53 -
$11.16
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 42.8% below Wall St target ($14.25)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.5% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.53 -
$11.16
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.84
Resistance Level
$11.10
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.49
Wall Street Target
$14.25
(+42.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
104.4%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 11.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.43
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$8.91
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$8.42
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$9.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 22.0%)
$41.90
(+320%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 22.0%)
$18.14
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 22.0%)
$15.42
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$23.74
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.7
Base Case
$21.58
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.6
Bear Case
$7.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 11.2
Stabilization Target:
$11.78
(+18.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 7:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pamela L Bentley
SELL
40000 shares
2025-12-16
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