Ares Capital (ARCC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARCC - Ares Capital Corporation
$18.86
-0.30 (-1.57%)
▼
5d:
-1.77%
30d:
-5.79%
90d:
+1.62%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARCC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARCC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.09
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARCC is currently trading at $18.86, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.23 to $19.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.77 (+10.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.77 (+10.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.23 -
$19.94
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARCC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($20.77)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (52/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.23 -
$19.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.78
Resistance Level
$19.59
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.75
Wall Street Target
$20.77
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-54.1%
Profit Margin
30.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.73
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$18.60
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$18.47
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$18.93
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 1.4%)
$41.08
(+118%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 1.4%)
$19.64
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 1.4%)
$16.70
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.34
Bull Case
$30.41
(+61%)
Analyst growth 44.3%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$27.65
(+47%)
Market implied 44.3%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$13.03
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$19.34
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ARCC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARCC price and gamma walls.
