What is the fair value of ARCC stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ARCC to be between $19.61 and $20.05. The current price is $19.74.

What is the analyst price target for ARCC?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ARCC is $20.77. This implies a potential upside of 5.2% from current levels.

Ares Capital (ARCC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ARCC - Ares Capital Corporation

$19.74

0.06 (0.30%) ▲

5d: -1.35%

30d: -0.65%

90d: +3.51%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 27, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $20.04 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 7.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: ARCC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 1.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$22.09

Based on 2.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$13.71

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ARCC is currently trading at $19.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.61 to $20.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $19.61 - $20.05

Company Quality Score 48/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 71.0%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($20.77)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.8% growth with 3.1% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $19.61 - $20.05

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $19.51

Resistance Level $20.23

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.21

Wall Street Target $20.77 (+5.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -54.1%

Profit Margin 30.9%

Valuation Premium vs History +0.8% premium

PE vs Historical 10.2 vs 10.0 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +0.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $19.90 (+1%)

2-Year Target $20.06 (+2%)

3-Year Target $20.22 (+2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→10) PE COMPRESSION $19.80 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 1.4%) $40.62 (+106%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 1.4%) $20.56 (+4%)

Bear: (PE: 8.7, Growth: 1.4%) $17.47 (-12%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 14.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.34

Bull Case $31.24 (+58%)

Analyst growth 44.3%, PE expands to 16.2

Base Case $28.40 (+44%)

Market implied 44.3%, PE stable at 14.7

Bear Case $13.38 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 13, 2026 8:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 AM

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Advanced ARCC Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARCC price and gamma walls.

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