HUTCHMED (China) (HCM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCM - HUTCHMED (China) Limited American Depositary Shares
$14.20
-0.37 (-2.54%)
âŧ
5d:
+1.87%
30d:
+17.94%
90d:
+21.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When HCM Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HCM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 15.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HCM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 15.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.58
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCM is currently trading at $14.20, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.66 to $14.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 54.8) compared to its historical average (35.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 15.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HCM scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.01 (+55.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HCM scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.01 (+55.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$12.66 -
$14.34
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.0% below Wall St target ($22.01)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 15.8% growth with 0.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.66 -
$14.34
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.81
Resistance Level
$14.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
54.78
Wall Street Target
$22.01
(+55.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-96.5%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+15.8% premium
PE vs Historical
54.8 vs 35.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+15.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.44
(+16%)
2-Year Target
$19.04
(+34%)
3-Year Target
$22.05
(+55%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 55â35)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.21
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 54.8, Growth: 16.8%)
$22.63
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 16.8%)
$8.43
(-41%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 16.8%)
$7.16
(-50%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 18.08 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.79
Bull Case
$17.15
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$14.20
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$10.86
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 12:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:44 AM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is HCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
NBIX
Neurocrine Biosciences IâĻ |
STRONG BUY
25 analysts |
$208 | 62 BUY |
|
ZTS
Zoetis Inc |
BUY
20 analysts |
$96 | 58 HOLD |
|
LNTH
Lantheus Holdings Inc |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$108 | 56 HOLD |
|
AQST
Aquestive Therapeutics IâĻ |
STRONG BUY
9 analysts |
$9 | 67 BUY |
|
BCRX
BioCryst PharmaceuticalsâĻ |
STRONG BUY
12 analysts |
$21 | 47 HOLD |
