HUTCHMED (China) (HCM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCM - HUTCHMED (China) Limited American Depositary Shares
$12.82
-0.30 (-2.29%)
âŧ
5d:
-9.14%
30d:
+4.65%
90d:
+20.04%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HCM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 13.4% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HCM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 13.4% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.70
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCM is currently trading at $12.82, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.89 to $13.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 49.1) compared to its historical average (33.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 13.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $11.80, while resistance sits at $14.32.
Market Sentiment: HCM scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.86 (+70.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $11.80, while resistance sits at $14.32.
Market Sentiment: HCM scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.86 (+70.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$11.89 -
$13.20
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 70.5% below Wall St target ($21.86)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 13.4% growth with 0.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.89 -
$13.20
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.80
Resistance Level
$14.33
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
49.14
Wall Street Target
$21.86
(+70.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-96.5%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+13.4% premium
PE vs Historical
49.1 vs 33.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+13.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.54
(+13%)
2-Year Target
$16.49
(+29%)
3-Year Target
$18.70
(+46%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 49â34)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.82
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 49.1, Growth: 33.0%)
$30.14
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 33.0%)
$12.37
(-4%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 33.0%)
$10.52
(-18%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 16.92 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.76
Bull Case
$15.48
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$12.82
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 16.9
Bear Case
$9.81
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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