HUTCHMED (China) (HCM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCM - HUTCHMED (China) Limited American Depositary Shares
$14.28
-0.09 (-0.63%)
âŧ
5d:
+2.44%
30d:
-0.63%
90d:
+29.7%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HCM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 14.5% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HCM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 14.5% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.58
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCM is currently trading at $14.28, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.71 to $14.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 55.1) compared to its historical average (36.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 14.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.28, while resistance sits at $14.94.
Market Sentiment: HCM scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.59 (+44.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.28, while resistance sits at $14.94.
Market Sentiment: HCM scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.59 (+44.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$13.71 -
$14.43
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.2% below Wall St target ($20.59)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 14.5% growth with 0.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.71 -
$14.43
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.28
Resistance Level
$14.94
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
55.09
Wall Street Target
$20.59
(+44.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-96.5%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+14.5% premium
PE vs Historical
55.1 vs 36.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+14.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.35
(+15%)
2-Year Target
$18.72
(+31%)
3-Year Target
$21.44
(+50%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 55â37)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.28
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 55.1, Growth: 16.8%)
$22.76
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.8%)
$8.20
(-43%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 16.8%)
$6.97
(-51%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 18.08 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.79
Bull Case
$17.24
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$14.28
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$10.92
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL
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