HCM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCM - HUTCHMED (China) Limited American Depositary Shares
$11.52
0.39 (3.50%)
▲
5d:
+3.6%
30d:
+0.7%
90d:
-13.38%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HCM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HCM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.69
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCM is currently trading at $11.52, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.73 to $11.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.6) is in line with its historical norms (30.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.48 (+102.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.48 (+102.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.73 -
$11.43
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 102.0% below Wall St target ($22.48)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.7% growth with -16.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.73 -
$11.43
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.62
Resistance Level
$11.61
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.63
Wall Street Target
$22.48
(+102.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.1%
Profit Margin
83.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
30.6 vs 30.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.21
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$11.29
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$11.37
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→30)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.13
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.6, Growth: 42.5%)
$32.18
(+189%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 42.5%)
$21.78
(+96%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 42.5%)
$18.51
(+66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.52
Bull Case
$5.92
(-47%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 4.7
Base Case
$5.38
(-52%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 4.3
Bear Case
$7.32
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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