HCM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCM - HUTCHMED (China) Limited American Depositary Shares
$10.16
0.17 (1.70%)
▲
5d:
-6.19%
30d:
-15.61%
90d:
-27.43%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 25, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HCM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HCM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.03
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.92
31.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCM is currently trading at $10.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.51 to $11.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.6) compared to its historical average (30.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.77, while resistance sits at $11.04.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.83 (+124.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.77, while resistance sits at $11.04.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.83 (+124.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.51 -
$11.86
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 124.7% below Wall St target ($22.83)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.51 -
$11.86
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.77
Resistance Level
$11.04
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.59
Wall Street Target
$22.83
(+124.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.1%
Profit Margin
83.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 30.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.14
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$8.23
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.41
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→31)
$11.01
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 28.5%)
$22.80
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 28.5%)
$21.55
(+112%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 28.5%)
$18.32
(+80%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.65
Bull Case
$5.59
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 4.2
Base Case
$5.08
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 3.8
Bear Case
$6.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 30.6
Stabilization Target:
$15.10
(+48.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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