KDP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KDP - Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
$30.26
-0.99 (-3.17%)
▼
5d:
-3.91%
30d:
-3.11%
90d:
+16.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KDP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KDP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.35
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KDP is currently trading at $30.26, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.72 to $32.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KDP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.41 (+13.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KDP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.41 (+13.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$30.72 -
$32.58
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($34.41)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.72 -
$32.58
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.57
Resistance Level
$31.60
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.97
Wall Street Target
$34.41
(+13.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.7%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.17
(0%)
2-Year Target
$30.08
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$29.99
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$30.31
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.5%)
$74.26
(+145%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 10.5%)
$40.82
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 10.5%)
$34.70
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.35
Bull Case
$64.36
(+113%)
Analyst growth 87.2%, PE expands to 25.5
Base Case
$58.51
(+93%)
Market implied 87.2%, PE stable at 23.2
Bear Case
$21.25
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 12.1
Stabilization Target:
$30.59
(+1.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 10:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is KDP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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