LLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LLY - Eli Lilly & Co.
$1166.54
35.12 (3.10%)
▲
5d:
+7.79%
30d:
+19.65%
90d:
+15.68%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: LLY is 7.5% above its trading range ($1085.57). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: LLY is 7.5% above its trading range ($1085.57). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2071.36
Based on 13.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1286.15
9.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $1166.54, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $937.82 to $1085.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.4) is in line with its historical norms (26.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 169.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1166.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: LLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1166.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: LLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$937.82 -
$1085.57
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
LLY is technically overbought (RSI 72). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1215.10)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$937.82 -
$1085.57
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1047.07
Resistance Level
$1166.29
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.44
Wall Street Target
$1215.10
(+7.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
169.9%
Profit Margin
35.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.4 vs 26.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1120.11
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$1108.90
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$1097.82
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→26)
$1130.52
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.4, Growth: 22.9%)
$2101.45
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 22.9%)
$1809.70
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 22.9%)
$1538.25
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.13
Bull Case
$1956.82
(+73%)
Analyst growth 58.1%, PE expands to 44.0
Base Case
$1778.92
(+57%)
Market implied 58.1%, PE stable at 40.0
Bear Case
$765.18
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.4 to 26.2
Stabilization Target:
$1165.12
(+3.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 08, 2026 11:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-13
David Taylor
BUY
2026-02-26
Angus S. King Jr.
SELL
2026-02-13
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