LPLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPLA - LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
$294.98
-2.64 (-0.89%)
▼
5d:
-0.12%
30d:
+2.49%
90d:
-1.77%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPLA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPLA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$642.67
Based on 13.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$399.05
26.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPLA is currently trading at $294.98, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $277.77 to $297.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.5) compared to its historical average (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $292.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LPLA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $416.50 (+39.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $292.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LPLA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $416.50 (+39.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$277.77 -
$297.32
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.9% below Wall St target ($416.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$277.77 -
$297.32
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$260.15
Resistance Level
$292.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.46
Wall Street Target
$416.50
(+39.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 12.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$282.74
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$268.60
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$255.17
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$297.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.6%)
$1143.39
(+284%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 22.6%)
$549.10
(+85%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 22.6%)
$466.74
(+57%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.11
Bull Case
$646.69
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.1
Base Case
$587.90
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.5
Bear Case
$199.89
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$347.14
(+16.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:08 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew J Audette
SELL
1110 shares
2026-04-15
Matthew J Audette
SELL
469 shares
2026-04-14
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-27
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