LPL Financial (LPLA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPLA - LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
$353.78
6.52 (1.88%)
▲
5d:
-1.85%
30d:
-6.08%
90d:
+23.94%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LPLA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LPLA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$685.41
Based on 14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$425.59
16.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPLA is currently trading at $353.78, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $354.21 to $369.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $344.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $430.00 (+21.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $344.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $430.00 (+21.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$354.21 -
$369.69
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.5% below Wall St target ($430.00)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (44/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$354.21 -
$369.69
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$344.65
Resistance Level
$372.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.86
Wall Street Target
$430.00
(+21.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.4%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$352.36
(0%)
2-Year Target
$350.96
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$349.55
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$353.65
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 24.2%)
$1152.55
(+226%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 24.2%)
$677.76
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 24.2%)
$576.10
(+63%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.40
Bull Case
$763.97
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.8
Base Case
$694.52
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.0
Bear Case
$236.14
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$357.93
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew J Audette
SELL
1110 shares
2026-04-15
Matthew J Audette
SELL
469 shares
2026-04-14
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-27
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