LPLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPLA - LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
$295.10
-2.52 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
-0.07%
30d:
+2.53%
90d:
-1.73%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPLA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LPLA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$642.67
Based on 13.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$399.05
26.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPLA is currently trading at $295.10, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $277.77 to $297.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $292.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LPLA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $416.50 (+41.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $292.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LPLA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $416.50 (+41.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$277.77 -
$297.33
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.1% below Wall St target ($416.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$277.77 -
$297.33
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$260.15
Resistance Level
$292.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.37
Wall Street Target
$416.50
(+41.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 12.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$279.75
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$265.21
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$251.42
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$295.75
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.6%)
$1143.39
(+288%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 22.6%)
$544.46
(+85%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 22.6%)
$462.79
(+57%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.10
Bull Case
$654.76
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.5
Base Case
$595.24
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.8
Bear Case
$202.38
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$347.14
(+17.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:39 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew J Audette
SELL
1110 shares
2026-04-15
Matthew J Audette
SELL
469 shares
2026-04-14
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-27
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