LPLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPLA - LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
$282.67
10.15 (3.72%)
▲
5d:
+4.13%
30d:
-11.9%
90d:
-9.37%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LPLA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LPLA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$653.20
Based on 13.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$405.59
30.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPLA is currently trading at $282.67, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $278.19 to $320.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.9) compared to its historical average (12.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $260.15, while resistance sits at $298.51. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: LPLA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $416.50 (+47.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $260.15, while resistance sits at $298.51. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: LPLA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $416.50 (+47.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$278.19 -
$320.40
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 47.3% below Wall St target ($416.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$278.19 -
$320.40
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$260.15
Resistance Level
$298.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.93
Wall Street Target
$416.50
(+47.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 12.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$262.60
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$243.96
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$226.63
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$282.89
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 22.6%)
$1150.22
(+307%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 22.6%)
$521.52
(+85%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 22.6%)
$443.29
(+57%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.11
Bull Case
$597.21
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 26.9
Base Case
$542.92
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.4
Bear Case
$184.59
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.9 to 12.4
Stabilization Target:
$352.83
(+24.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew J Audette
SELL
1110 shares
2026-04-15
Matthew J Audette
SELL
469 shares
2026-04-14
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-27
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