LPL Financial (LPLA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPLA - LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
$316.44
4.29 (1.37%)
▲
5d:
+0.66%
30d:
-10.89%
90d:
+3.84%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LPLA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LPLA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$685.77
Based on 14.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$425.81
25.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPLA is currently trading at $316.44, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $320.75 to $363.82. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.6) compared to its historical average (11.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $295.58, while resistance sits at $335.93.
Market Sentiment: LPLA scores 87/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $429.33 (+35.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $295.58, while resistance sits at $335.93.
Market Sentiment: LPLA scores 87/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $429.33 (+35.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$320.75 -
$363.82
Company Quality Score
76/100
(STRONG BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (87/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.7% below Wall St target ($429.33)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 26% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$320.75 -
$363.82
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$295.58
Resistance Level
$335.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.58
Wall Street Target
$429.33
(+35.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.4%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 11.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$304.10
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$292.24
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$280.84
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$315.83
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 24.5%)
$1178.26
(+272%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 24.5%)
$611.18
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 24.5%)
$519.50
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.73
Bull Case
$686.73
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.0
Base Case
$624.30
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.5
Bear Case
$212.26
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 11.9
Stabilization Target:
$355.86
(+12.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 12:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew J Audette
SELL
1110 shares
2026-04-15
Matthew J Audette
SELL
469 shares
2026-04-14
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