LPL Financial (LPLA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPLA - LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
$318.85
-2.18 (-0.68%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.66%
30d:
+5.42%
90d:
-3.0%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: LPLA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: LPLA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$693.96
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$430.89
26.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPLA is currently trading at $318.85, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $311.38 to $333.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.6) compared to its historical average (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $313.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $422.38 (+32.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $313.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $422.38 (+32.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$311.38 -
$333.21
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.5% below Wall St target ($422.38)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$311.38 -
$333.21
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$313.09
Resistance Level
$335.44
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.56
Wall Street Target
$422.38
(+32.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.4%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 11.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$307.05
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$295.69
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$284.75
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â12)
$318.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 27.6%)
$1246.88
(+291%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 27.6%)
$662.87
(+108%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 27.6%)
$563.44
(+77%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.57
Bull Case
$706.27
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 28.1
Base Case
$642.06
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.5
Bear Case
$218.30
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 11.8
Stabilization Target:
$356.36
(+11.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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