LPLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPLA - LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
$360.35
6.65 (1.88%)
▲
5d:
+8.63%
30d:
+22.08%
90d:
+13.09%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: LPLA is 7.5% above its trading range ($335.13). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: LPLA is 7.5% above its trading range ($335.13). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$685.89
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$425.88
15.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPLA is currently trading at $360.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $290.30 to $335.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $364.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LPLA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $412.29 (+21.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $364.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LPLA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $412.29 (+21.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$290.30 -
$335.13
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.6% below Wall St target ($412.29)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$290.30 -
$335.13
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$320.07
Resistance Level
$364.21
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.56
Wall Street Target
$412.29
(+21.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$335.10
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$331.08
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$327.11
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$339.69
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 25.0%)
$1194.15
(+252%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 25.0%)
$663.10
(+96%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 25.0%)
$563.64
(+66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.97
Bull Case
$743.11
(+110%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.9
Base Case
$675.56
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.8
Bear Case
$229.69
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$352.21
(+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 4:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew J Audette
SELL
1110 shares
2026-04-15
Matthew J Audette
SELL
469 shares
2026-04-14
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-27
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