LPLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPLA - LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
$360.35
6.65 (1.88%)
▲
5d:
+8.63%
30d:
+22.08%
90d:
+13.09%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: LPLA is 7.5% above its trading range ($335.13). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: LPLA is 7.5% above its trading range ($335.13). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$687.70
Based on 14.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$427.01
15.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPLA is currently trading at $360.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $290.30 to $335.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $364.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LPLA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $428.29 (+18.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $364.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LPLA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $428.29 (+18.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$290.30 -
$335.13
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($428.29)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$290.30 -
$335.13
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$320.07
Resistance Level
$364.21
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.12
Wall Street Target
$428.29
(+18.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.4%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$361.79
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$363.24
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$364.69
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$361.17
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 24.5%)
$1190.64
(+230%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 24.5%)
$695.95
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 24.5%)
$591.56
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.49
Bull Case
$778.14
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.2
Base Case
$707.40
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.3
Bear Case
$240.52
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:09 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew J Audette
SELL
1110 shares
2026-04-15
Matthew J Audette
SELL
469 shares
2026-04-14
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-27
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