LPLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPLA - LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
$361.35
7.33 (2.07%)
â˛
5d:
-2.51%
30d:
+11.76%
90d:
+25.55%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: LPLA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: LPLA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$686.13
Based on 14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$426.03
15.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPLA is currently trading at $361.35, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $332.20 to $367.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $352.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LPLA scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $431.86 (+19.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $352.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LPLA scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $431.86 (+19.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$332.20 -
$367.70
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($431.86)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$332.20 -
$367.70
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$352.05
Resistance Level
$379.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.10
Wall Street Target
$431.86
(+19.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.4%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$362.43
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$363.52
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$364.61
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â12)
PE COMPRESSION
$361.53
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 24.2%)
$1148.41
(+218%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 24.2%)
$692.49
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 24.2%)
$588.62
(+63%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.47
Bull Case
$778.84
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.2
Base Case
$708.04
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.4
Bear Case
$240.73
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew J Audette
SELL
1110 shares
2026-04-15
Matthew J Audette
SELL
469 shares
2026-04-14
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-27
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