LPLA
LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
SECURITY & COMMODITY BROKERS, DEALERS, EXCHANGES & SERVICES
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LPL Financial (LPLA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$301.62
-6.89 (-2.23%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.17%
30d:
-7.37%
90d:
-19.56%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
47/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$296.38 â $329.08
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.2x
CHEAP
vs 11.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$404.44
+34.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$270.51 / $317.94
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: LPLA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$671.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$416.77
27.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPLA is currently trading at $301.62, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $296.38 to $329.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (11.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $270.50, while resistance sits at $317.94.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $404.44 (+34.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $270.50, while resistance sits at $317.94.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $404.44 (+34.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$296.38 -
$329.08
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$296.38 -
$329.08
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$270.51
Resistance Level
$317.94
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.1% below Wall St target ($404.44)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.24
Wall Street Target
$404.44
(+34.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.4%
Profit Margin
7.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 11.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$288.35
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$275.66
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$263.53
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â12)
$301.15
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 25.7%)
$1160.82
(+285%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 25.7%)
$598.44
(+98%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 25.7%)
$508.67
(+69%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.45
Bull Case
$572.92
(+90%)
Analyst growth 68.8%, PE expands to 19.5
Base Case
$520.83
(+73%)
Market implied 68.8%, PE stable at 17.7
Bear Case
$209.79
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 11.7
Stabilization Target:
$344.67
(+14.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (LPLA)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 28, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) reported Q3 earnings of $5.97 per share, beating estimates and surpassing consensus earnings estimates in the last four quarters. However, revenues missed the consensus estimate.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings beat
revenue miss
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 6:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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