NHI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NHI - National Health Investors
$75.90
0.57 (0.76%)
▲
5d:
-0.13%
30d:
+4.36%
90d:
-12.23%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NHI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NHI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.53
Based on -36.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NHI is currently trading at $75.90, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.27 to $76.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.0) is in line with its historical norms (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NHI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NHI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$71.27 -
$76.74
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($82.88)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.27 -
$76.74
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.94
Resistance Level
$76.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.00
Wall Street Target
$82.88
(+9.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.0%
Profit Margin
36.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.0 vs 22.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.14
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$74.39
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$73.65
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$75.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: -76.3%)
$55.33
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: -76.3%)
$54.78
(-28%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: -76.3%)
$46.56
(-39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$92.22
(+22%)
Analyst growth 11.3%, PE expands to 26.7
Base Case
$83.84
(+11%)
Market implied 11.3%, PE stable at 24.3
Bear Case
$51.22
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.0 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$78.32
(+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 5:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NHI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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