PGR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGR - Progressive Corporation
$215.78
8.40 (4.05%)
▲
5d:
+6.03%
30d:
+8.45%
90d:
+5.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
21d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PGR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PGR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$205.47
Based on -0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$127.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGR is currently trading at $215.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $195.61 to $206.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.7) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $204.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: PGR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.19 (+11.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $204.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: PGR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.19 (+11.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$195.61 -
$206.03
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.3%
Protect Your Profits
PGR is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($230.19)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$195.61 -
$206.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$189.20
Resistance Level
$204.51
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.70
Wall Street Target
$230.19
(+11.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Profit Margin
12.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$206.76
(0%)
2-Year Target
$206.14
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$205.52
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$207.19
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -4.6%)
$308.92
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: -4.6%)
$180.09
(-13%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: -4.6%)
$153.07
(-26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.67
Bull Case
$187.13
(-10%)
Analyst growth -17.0%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$170.12
(-18%)
Market implied -17.0%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$139.31
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.7 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$209.07
(+0.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Carl G Joyce
SELL
270 shares
2026-03-20
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PGR price and gamma walls.
