NMIH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMIH - NMI Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$44.30
0.86 (1.98%)
▲
5d:
+3.63%
30d:
+8.05%
90d:
+14.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NMIH is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NMIH is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.76
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMIH is currently trading at $44.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.58 to $43.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (7.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $40.97, while resistance sits at $46.74.
Market Sentiment: NMIH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $40.97, while resistance sits at $46.74.
Market Sentiment: NMIH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$40.58 -
$43.08
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($47.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.58 -
$43.08
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.97
Resistance Level
$46.74
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.21
Wall Street Target
$47.33
(+6.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Profit Margin
53.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.1% premium
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.12
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$48.01
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$49.98
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.46
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 4.7%)
$128.55
(+190%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 4.7%)
$50.89
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 4.7%)
$43.25
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.83
Bull Case
$53.41
(+21%)
Analyst growth 11.8%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$48.55
(+10%)
Market implied 11.8%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$29.54
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 9:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMIH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18953 shares
2026-03-24
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18996 shares
2026-03-19
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18976 shares
2026-03-12
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