NMIH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMIH - NMI Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$41.53
0.37 (0.90%)
▲
5d:
+0.36%
30d:
+12.12%
90d:
+7.56%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMIH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMIH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.22
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMIH is currently trading at $41.53, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.03 to $40.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.7) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NMIH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.17 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NMIH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.17 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$37.03 -
$40.98
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.17)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.03 -
$40.98
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.12
Resistance Level
$37.60
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.69
Wall Street Target
$46.17
(+11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Profit Margin
53.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.36
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$43.21
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$44.07
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.82
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.1%)
$136.62
(+229%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 5.1%)
$48.26
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 5.1%)
$41.02
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.92
Bull Case
$49.52
(+20%)
Analyst growth 9.7%, PE expands to 9.2
Base Case
$45.02
(+9%)
Market implied 9.7%, PE stable at 8.3
Bear Case
$27.90
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMIH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18953 shares
2026-03-24
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18996 shares
2026-03-19
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18976 shares
2026-03-12
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