NMIH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMIH - NMI Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$45.16
-0.23 (-0.51%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.2%
30d:
+8.61%
90d:
+19.6%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NMIH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NMIH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.76
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMIH is currently trading at $45.16, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.61 to $45.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (7.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NMIH scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMIH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NMIH scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$42.61 -
$45.31
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
39.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($49.17)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.61 -
$45.31
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.08
Resistance Level
$46.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.25
Wall Street Target
$49.17
(+8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.1%
Profit Margin
54.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.9% premium
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.92
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$48.75
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$50.65
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â7)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.84
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 4.1%)
$124.13
(+175%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 4.1%)
$51.00
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 4.1%)
$43.35
(-4%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.05
Bull Case
$54.14
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.4%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$49.22
(+9%)
Market implied 8.4%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$30.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMIH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18953 shares
2026-03-24
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18996 shares
2026-03-19
Bradley M Shuster
SELL
18976 shares
2026-03-12
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