Is PTON stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, PTON is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: PTON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of PTON stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PTON to be between $5.39 and $6.36. The current price is $5.30.

What is the analyst price target for PTON?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PTON is $8.00. This implies a potential upside of 50.9% from current levels.

PTON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PTON - Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock

SPORTING & ATHLETIC GOODS, NEC

$5.30

-0.06 (-1.12%) ▼

5d: -5.02%

30d: -19.58%

90d: -12.25%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 06, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $5.68 · last confirmed Aug 27, 2026

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PTON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$11.55

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$7.17

26.1% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PTON is currently trading at $5.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.39 to $6.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.6) compared to its historical average (20.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 160.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PTON is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: PTON scores 87/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.00 (+50.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $5.39 - $6.36

Company Quality Score 69/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 90.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (87/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 50.9% below Wall St target ($8.00)
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 23% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.0%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $5.39 - $6.36

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $5.21

Resistance Level $5.72

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 27, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.58

Wall Street Target $8.00 (+50.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 0.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 160.6%

Profit Margin 2.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -3.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 18.6 vs 20.8 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -3.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $5.10 (-4%)

2-Year Target $4.92 (-7%)

3-Year Target $4.73 (-11%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→21) $5.30 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 121.1%) $19.32 (+265%)

Base: (SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 121.1%) $17.89 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 15.8, Growth: 121.1%) $15.20 (+187%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 38.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.14

Bull Case $11.79 (+123%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.1

Base Case $10.72 (+102%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.3

Bear Case $3.64 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 20.8

Stabilization Target: $5.93 (+11.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +11.9%

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Last updated: August 27, 2026 9:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Charles Peter Kirol SELL 3670 shares 2026-04-20

Charles Peter Kirol SELL 19806 shares 2026-04-16

Maria Elvira Salazar BUY 2026-03-19

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Advanced PTON Option Strategies

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