RUN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RUN - Sunrun Inc
$14.85
-0.40 (-2.62%)
▼
5d:
-2.3%
30d:
+16.93%
90d:
+22.02%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RUN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -11.8% annual earnings decline despite 214% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RUN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -11.8% annual earnings decline despite 214% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.51
Based on -16.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RUN is currently trading at $14.85, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.99 to $15.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.3) compared to its historical average (26.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 214.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.92, while resistance sits at $16.76.
Market Sentiment: RUN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.26 (+29.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.92, while resistance sits at $16.76.
Market Sentiment: RUN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.26 (+29.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$12.99 -
$15.18
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.7% below Wall St target ($19.26)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.99 -
$15.18
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.92
Resistance Level
$16.76
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.32
Wall Street Target
$19.26
(+29.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
43.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
214.4%
Profit Margin
17.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 26.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.37
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$12.03
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.83
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→27)
$15.78
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -37.4%)
$12.95
(+-13%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: -37.4%)
$10.83
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: -37.4%)
$9.20
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.13
Bull Case
$8.38
(-47%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$7.62
(-52%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$10.36
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 26.7
Stabilization Target:
$21.64
(+45.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+45.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 6:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RUN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maria Barak
SELL
8039 shares
2026-04-09
Danny Abajian
SELL
132953 shares
2026-04-06
Jeanna Steele
SELL
76478 shares
2026-04-06
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