SHOP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOP - Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares
$116.86
5.24 (4.69%)
▲
5d:
+7.36%
30d:
+9.62%
90d:
+1.24%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHOP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHOP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOP is currently trading at $116.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $105.11 to $115.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 50.1) compared to its historical average (61.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $117.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: SHOP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $148.22 (+26.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $117.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: SHOP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $148.22 (+26.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$105.11 -
$115.62
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.8% below Wall St target ($148.22)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$105.11 -
$115.62
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.00
Resistance Level
$117.86
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 26, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
50.10
Wall Street Target
$148.22
(+26.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.3%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
50.1 vs 61.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$109.38
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$102.38
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$95.83
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 50→61)
$117.06
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 50.1, Growth: 26.9%)
$239.03
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 26.9%)
$103.91
(-11%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 26.9%)
$88.32
(-24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (60x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (50x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 59.88 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.95
Bull Case
$141.11
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 62.9
Base Case
$116.86
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 59.9
Bear Case
$89.40
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 53.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 50.1 to 61.2
Stabilization Target:
$142.75
(+22.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 28, 2026 1:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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