Is SHOP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, SHOP is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SHOP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of SHOP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for SHOP to be between $116.25 and $143.87. The current price is $154.32.

What is the analyst price target for SHOP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for SHOP is $167.89. This implies a potential upside of 5.9% from current levels.

SHOP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

SHOP - Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$154.32

-4.21 (-2.66%) ▼

5d: +1.81%

30d: +23.4%

90d: +58.41%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your SHOP Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 05, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $151.57 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SHOP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$118.64

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$73.67

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SHOP is currently trading at $154.32, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $116.25 to $143.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 65.0) is in line with its historical norms (59.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $158.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: SHOP scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $116.25 - $143.87

Company Quality Score 38/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 20.0%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.3% above its trading range)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($167.89)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $116.25 - $143.87

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $116.64

Resistance Level $158.87

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 65.05

Wall Street Target $167.89 (+5.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 33.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 68.1%

Profit Margin 14.5%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.8% premium

PE vs Historical 65.1 vs 59.8 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $162.97 (+3%)

2-Year Target $167.53 (+6%)

3-Year Target $172.22 (+9%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 65→60) PE COMPRESSION $158.32 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 65.1, Growth: 28.4%) $335.73 (+112%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 28.4%) $104.41 (-34%)

Bear: (PE: 17.2, Growth: 28.4%) $88.75 (-44%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (81x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (65x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 80.65 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.91

Bull Case $186.34 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 84.7

Base Case $154.32 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 80.7

Bear Case $118.05 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 72.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 16, 2026 2:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced SHOP Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SHOP price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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