SHOP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOP - Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares
$117.15
-5.25 (-4.29%)
▼
5d:
+2.99%
30d:
-3.68%
90d:
-3.29%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHOP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHOP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.52
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOP is currently trading at $117.15, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $113.98 to $125.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 50.2) compared to its historical average (59.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $111.06, while resistance sits at $133.99. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $148.47 (+26.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $111.06, while resistance sits at $133.99. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $148.47 (+26.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$113.98 -
$125.67
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.7% below Wall St target ($148.47)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$113.98 -
$125.67
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$111.06
Resistance Level
$133.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
50.24
Wall Street Target
$148.47
(+26.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.3%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
50.2 vs 59.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$110.47
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$104.18
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$98.24
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 50→60)
$117.12
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 50.2, Growth: 26.4%)
$236.35
(+102%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 26.4%)
$97.52
(-17%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 26.4%)
$82.89
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (68x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (50x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 68.49 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.71
Bull Case
$141.46
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 71.9
Base Case
$117.15
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 68.5
Bear Case
$89.62
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 61.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 50.2 to 59.9
Stabilization Target:
$139.67
(+19.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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