SHOP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOP - Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares
$124.74
2.20 (1.80%)
▲
5d:
+3.83%
30d:
+15.29%
90d:
+12.59%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
22d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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2 traders called SHOP this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHOP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHOP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.44
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOP is currently trading at $124.74, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $109.04 to $119.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 52.6) compared to its historical average (60.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $112.00, while resistance sits at $130.75.
Market Sentiment: SHOP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $147.33 (+20.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $112.00, while resistance sits at $130.75.
Market Sentiment: SHOP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $147.33 (+20.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$109.04 -
$119.86
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.2% below Wall St target ($147.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$109.04 -
$119.86
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$112.00
Resistance Level
$130.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
52.59
Wall Street Target
$147.33
(+20.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.3%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
52.6 vs 60.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$116.90
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$111.53
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$106.40
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 53→61)
$122.60
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 52.6, Growth: 26.4%)
$247.36
(+102%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 26.4%)
$102.44
(-16%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 26.4%)
$87.08
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (65x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (53x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 65.36 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.87
Bull Case
$147.97
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 68.6
Base Case
$122.54
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 65.4
Bear Case
$93.74
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 58.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 52.6 to 60.6
Stabilization Target:
$141.20
(+15.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 4:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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