SHOP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOP - Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares
$108.78
0.80 (0.74%)
▲
5d:
-3.3%
30d:
+3.73%
90d:
-10.18%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SHOP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SHOP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOP is currently trading at $108.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.13 to $115.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 46.3) compared to its historical average (61.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $104.11, while resistance sits at $116.96.
Market Sentiment: SHOP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $148.22 (+37.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $104.11, while resistance sits at $116.96.
Market Sentiment: SHOP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $148.22 (+37.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$103.13 -
$115.15
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.3% below Wall St target ($148.22)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$103.13 -
$115.15
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$104.11
Resistance Level
$116.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
46.29
Wall Street Target
$148.22
(+37.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.3%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
46.3 vs 61.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$98.15
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$89.22
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$81.10
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 46→62)
$107.92
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 46.3, Growth: 26.9%)
$220.86
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 26.9%)
$103.91
(-4%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 26.9%)
$88.32
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (58x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (46x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 57.80 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.87
Bull Case
$130.39
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 60.7
Base Case
$107.98
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 57.8
Bear Case
$82.60
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 52.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 46.3 to 61.6
Stabilization Target:
$143.68
(+33.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SHOP price and gamma walls.
