Is SHOP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, SHOP is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: SHOP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of SHOP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for SHOP to be between $137.25 and $154.58. The current price is $133.89.

What is the analyst price target for SHOP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for SHOP is $171.08. This implies a potential upside of 32.8% from current levels.

SHOP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

SHOP - Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$133.89

5.10 (3.96%) ▲

5d: -7.72%

30d: -15.54%

90d: +23.7%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your SHOP Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 27, 2026 at $154.33 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 8.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SHOP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$119.74

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$74.35

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SHOP is currently trading at $133.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $137.25 to $154.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 52.4) compared to its historical average (59.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 68.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $124.03, while resistance sits at $151.28. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.08 (+32.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $137.25 - $154.58

Company Quality Score 61/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 84.3%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.0%)
BULLISH: Trading 32.8% below Wall St target ($171.08)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.7%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $137.25 - $154.58

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $124.03

Resistance Level $151.28

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 52.36

Wall Street Target $171.08 (+32.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 33.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 68.1%

Profit Margin 14.5%

Valuation Discount vs History -4.3% cheaper

PE vs Historical 52.4 vs 59.8 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -4.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $123.25 (-4%)

2-Year Target $117.95 (-8%)

3-Year Target $112.88 (-12%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 52→60) $128.91 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 52.4, Growth: 29.0%) $276.41 (+115%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 29.0%) $106.48 (-17%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 29.0%) $90.50 (-30%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 51.55 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.50

Bull Case $155.51 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 54.1

Base Case $128.79 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 51.6

Bear Case $98.52 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 46.4

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 52.4 to 59.8

Stabilization Target: $147.08 (+14.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +14.2%

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Last updated: September 14, 2026 4:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:41 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced SHOP Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SHOP price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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