SHOP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOP - Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares
$168.68
-0.13 (-0.08%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.5%
30d:
+16.2%
90d:
+32.94%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SHOP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SHOP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$119.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOP is currently trading at $168.68, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $139.03 to $172.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 68.7) compared to its historical average (60.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $163.25, while resistance sits at $180.88.
Market Sentiment: SHOP scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $163.25, while resistance sits at $180.88.
Market Sentiment: SHOP scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$139.03 -
$172.00
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
39.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SHOP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($175.73)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$139.03 -
$172.00
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$163.25
Resistance Level
$180.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
68.67
Wall Street Target
$175.73
(+4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
68.1%
Profit Margin
14.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.5% premium
PE vs Historical
68.7 vs 60.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$176.27
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$184.20
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$192.49
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 69â60)
PE COMPRESSION
$168.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 68.7, Growth: 28.5%)
$358.30
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 28.5%)
$103.62
(-39%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 28.5%)
$88.08
(-48%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 58.82 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.87
Bull Case
$203.68
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 61.8
Base Case
$168.68
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 58.8
Bear Case
$129.04
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 52.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 25, 2026 6:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SHOP price and gamma walls.
