Is SHOP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, SHOP is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SHOP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of SHOP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for SHOP to be between $132.64 and $150.45. The current price is $151.39.

What is the analyst price target for SHOP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for SHOP is $172.77. This implies a potential upside of 14.1% from current levels.

SHOP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

SHOP - Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$151.39

2.30 (1.54%) ▲

5d: +6.43%

30d: +6.71%

90d: +26.01%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your SHOP Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026 28d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 23, 2026 at $142.34 · last confirmed Oct 1, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SHOP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$119.30

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$74.07

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SHOP is currently trading at $151.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $132.64 to $150.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 61.8) is in line with its historical norms (59.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $153.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: SHOP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.77 (+14.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $132.64 - $150.45

Company Quality Score 42/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 27.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($172.77)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $132.64 - $150.45

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $126.39

Resistance Level $153.01

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 61.78

Wall Street Target $172.77 (+14.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 33.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 68.1%

Profit Margin 14.5%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.2% premium

PE vs Historical 61.8 vs 59.6 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $153.21 (+1%)

2-Year Target $155.05 (+2%)

3-Year Target $156.91 (+4%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 62→60) PE COMPRESSION $151.36 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 61.8, Growth: 28.2%) $319.32 (+111%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 28.2%) $105.44 (-30%)

Bear: (PE: 17.3, Growth: 28.2%) $89.62 (-41%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 58.82 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.57

Bull Case $182.80 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 61.8

Base Case $151.39 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 58.8

Bear Case $115.81 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 52.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 04, 2026 8:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:11 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced SHOP Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SHOP price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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