SMPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMPL - The Simply Good Foods Company Common Stock
$13.73
0.23 (1.70%)
▲
5d:
+11.72%
30d:
+16.26%
90d:
-3.31%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 09, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMPL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMPL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.70
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMPL is currently trading at $13.73, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.69 to $12.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.9) is in line with its historical norms (7.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMPL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.50 (+27.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMPL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.50 (+27.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.69 -
$12.95
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.0% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.5% below Wall St target ($17.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.5% growth with -9.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.69 -
$12.95
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.27
Resistance Level
$12.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.89
Wall Street Target
$17.50
(+27.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
-7.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 7.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.80
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$13.87
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$13.94
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.78
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.9%)
$46.25
(+237%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 6.9%)
$16.75
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 6.9%)
$14.24
(+4%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 02, 2026 8:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James M Kilts
BUY
80000 shares
2026-04-23
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-03-13
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-02-11
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