SMPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMPL - The Simply Good Foods Company Common Stock
$11.38
-0.07 (-0.61%)
▼
5d:
+3.93%
30d:
+0.53%
90d:
-3.64%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMPL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMPL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.46
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMPL is currently trading at $11.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.51 to $11.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.7) compared to its historical average (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.13, while resistance sits at $11.82.
Market Sentiment: SMPL scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.38 (+26.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.13, while resistance sits at $11.82.
Market Sentiment: SMPL scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.38 (+26.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.51 -
$11.28
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.3% below Wall St target ($14.38)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.51 -
$11.28
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.13
Resistance Level
$11.82
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.69
Wall Street Target
$14.38
(+26.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
-14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 7.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.92
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$10.49
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$10.07
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$11.43
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 3.3%)
$37.65
(+231%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 3.3%)
$12.54
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 3.3%)
$10.66
(-6%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$12.92
(+13.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 02, 2026 5:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James M Kilts
BUY
80000 shares
2026-04-23
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-03-13
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