SMPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMPL - The Simply Good Foods Company Common Stock
$10.88
-0.11 (-1.00%)
▼
5d:
-3.8%
30d:
+5.84%
90d:
-6.21%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: SMPL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: SMPL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.67
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMPL is currently trading at $10.88, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.41 to $11.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.4) compared to its historical average (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.88 (+35.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.88 (+35.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.41 -
$11.74
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.6% below Wall St target ($14.88)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.41 -
$11.74
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.61
Resistance Level
$11.60
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.43
Wall Street Target
$14.88
(+35.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
-14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 7.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.38
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$9.82
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$9.29
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$10.98
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 3.7%)
$38.27
(+249%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 3.7%)
$12.23
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: 3.7%)
$10.40
(-5%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$12.97
(+18.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James M Kilts
BUY
80000 shares
2026-04-23
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-03-13
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