The Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMPL - The Simply Good Foods Company Common Stock
$9.77
-0.11 (-1.11%)
▼
5d:
+1.77%
30d:
-13.39%
90d:
-24.61%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMPL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SMPL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.05
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMPL is currently trading at $9.77, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.67 to $10.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.8) compared to its historical average (7.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.38, while resistance sits at $10.23.
Market Sentiment: SMPL scores 92/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.38 (+45.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.38, while resistance sits at $10.23.
Market Sentiment: SMPL scores 92/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.38 (+45.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$9.67 -
$10.99
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (92/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.5% below Wall St target ($14.38)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 30% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.67 -
$10.99
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.38
Resistance Level
$10.24
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.81
Wall Street Target
$14.38
(+45.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
-14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 7.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.12
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$8.42
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$7.77
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$9.89
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 3.3%)
$38.21
(+287%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 3.3%)
$10.89
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 3.3%)
$9.25
(-6%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 7.4
Stabilization Target:
$12.58
(+27.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 1:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James M Kilts
BUY
80000 shares
2026-04-23
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