The Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMPL - The Simply Good Foods Company Common Stock
$11.08
0.41 (3.84%)
▲
5d:
-0.45%
30d:
+15.54%
90d:
+8.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMPL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMPL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.91
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMPL is currently trading at $11.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.65 to $10.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.00, while resistance sits at $11.44. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMPL scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+26.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.00, while resistance sits at $11.44. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMPL scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+26.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.65 -
$10.69
Company Quality Score
24/100
(STRONG SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
33.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.4% below Wall St target ($14.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 24/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.65 -
$10.69
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.00
Resistance Level
$11.44
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.64
Wall Street Target
$14.00
(+26.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
-14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.74
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$10.40
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$10.08
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$11.08
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.4%)
$34.56
(+212%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 1.4%)
$11.56
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 1.4%)
$9.82
(-11%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$12.18
(+9.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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