SMPL
The Simply Good Foods Company Common Stock
FOOD AND KINDRED PRODUCTS
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The Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$12.64
+0.22 (+1.77%)
▲
5d:
-4.89%
30d:
+19.87%
90d:
+13.06%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (25%)
Quality Score
30/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$10.11 – $12.13
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.6x
FAIR
vs 7.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$12.00
-5.1% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$10.44 / $13.57
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMPL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.89
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMPL is currently trading at $12.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.11 to $12.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.44, while resistance sits at $13.57.
Market Sentiment: SMPL scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.44, while resistance sits at $13.57.
Market Sentiment: SMPL scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.11 -
$12.13
Company Quality Score
30/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$10.11 -
$12.13
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$10.44
Resistance Level
$13.57
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($12.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.4% growth with -9.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.59
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(-5.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
-11.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.82
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$13.00
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$13.18
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.68
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.4%)
$34.52
(+173%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 1.4%)
$13.19
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 1.4%)
$11.21
(-11%)
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SMPL)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits users are bullish on $SMPL after SCAG's strategic cooperation announcement with China Huaye Group and a rebound in share price. The latest Yahoo Finance news article questions whether the current share price is justified based on Simply Good Foods' sales and revenue.
Key Retail Themes:
Strategic cooperation agreement
Share price rebound
Valuation debate
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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