SMPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMPL - The Simply Good Foods Company Common Stock
$10.18
-0.20 (-1.93%)
▼
5d:
-0.39%
30d:
-24.59%
90d:
-23.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMPL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SMPL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.87
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMPL is currently trading at $10.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.76 to $13.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.0) compared to its historical average (7.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SMPL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.88 (+46.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SMPL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.88 (+46.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.76 -
$13.11
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.1% below Wall St target ($14.88)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.76 -
$13.11
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.88
Resistance Level
$11.29
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.96
Wall Street Target
$14.88
(+46.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
-14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.0 vs 7.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.36
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$8.60
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$7.90
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$10.20
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 3.7%)
$39.45
(+288%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.0, Growth: 3.7%)
$11.35
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.1, Growth: 3.7%)
$9.65
(-5%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.0 to 7.7
Stabilization Target:
$13.14
(+29.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James M Kilts
BUY
80000 shares
2026-04-23
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-03-13
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-02-11
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