SMPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMPL - The Simply Good Foods Company Common Stock
$12.21
0.35 (2.91%)
▲
5d:
-2.44%
30d:
+5.22%
90d:
-13.13%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 09, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMPL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMPL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.32
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMPL is currently trading at $12.21, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.47 to $12.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.7) compared to its historical average (7.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMPL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.33 (+46.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMPL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.33 (+46.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$11.47 -
$12.36
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.1% below Wall St target ($17.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.47 -
$12.36
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.27
Resistance Level
$12.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.69
Wall Street Target
$17.33
(+46.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
-7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 7.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.27
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$10.70
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$10.17
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$11.86
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.6%)
$48.06
(+305%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 7.6%)
$14.76
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 7.6%)
$12.55
(+6%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 7.8
Stabilization Target:
$13.83
(+16.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James M Kilts
BUY
80000 shares
2026-04-23
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-03-13
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-02-11
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