The Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMPL - The Simply Good Foods Company Common Stock
$9.84
-0.40 (-3.91%)
▼
5d:
-14.36%
30d:
-10.05%
90d:
-22.15%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SMPL is down 14.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SMPL is down 14.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.25
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMPL is currently trading at $9.84, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.57 to $11.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.8) compared to its historical average (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.38 (+46.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMPL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.38 (+46.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.57 -
$11.38
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 46.1% below Wall St target ($14.38)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.57 -
$11.38
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.83
Resistance Level
$11.82
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.79
Wall Street Target
$14.38
(+46.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
-14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 7.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.02
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$8.27
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$7.59
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$9.83
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 3.3%)
$37.78
(+284%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 3.3%)
$10.84
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 3.3%)
$9.22
(-6%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$12.75
(+29.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James M Kilts
BUY
80000 shares
2026-04-23
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