FRPT
Freshpet, Inc.
GRAIN MILL PRODUCTS
Freshpet (FRPT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$64.52
-0.09 (-0.14%)
âŧ
5d:
-9.5%
30d:
-2.48%
90d:
-11.29%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (84%)
Quality Score
48/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$63.51 â $67.94
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
31.7x
CHEAP
vs 35.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$84.81
+31.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$61.91 / $71.45
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FRPT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.96
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRPT is currently trading at $64.52, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.51 to $67.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 31.6) compared to its historical average (35.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $61.91, while resistance sits at $71.45.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.81 (+31.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $61.91, while resistance sits at $71.45.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.81 (+31.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$63.51 -
$67.94
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$63.51 -
$67.94
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$4.29
(6.7%)
Support Level
$61.91
Resistance Level
$71.45
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding FRPT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.5% below Wall St target ($84.81)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.65
Wall Street Target
$84.81
(+31.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.7%
Profit Margin
10.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
31.7 vs 35.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.13
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$59.83
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$57.62
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32â35)
$64.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.7, Growth: 8.5%)
$82.37
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.5%)
$51.68
(-20%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 8.5%)
$43.93
(-32%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 25.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.52
Bull Case
$57.49
(-11%)
Analyst growth -19.1%, PE expands to 28.2
Base Case
$52.26
(-19%)
Market implied -19.1%, PE stable at 25.6
Bear Case
$43.93
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 31.7 to 35.4
Stabilization Target:
$72.16
(+11.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (FRPT)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Aug 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bearish sentiment prevails on StockTwits regarding $FRPT's move to ADM WMT, with no new information available from Yahoo Finance news.
Key Retail Themes:
$FRPT's move to ADM WMT
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 7:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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NEUTRAL
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