Freshpet (FRPT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FRPT - Freshpet, Inc.
$67.00
4.42 (7.06%)
▲
5d:
-0.96%
30d:
+13.16%
90d:
+16.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FRPT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FRPT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.57
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRPT is currently trading at $67.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $59.09 to $65.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 32.2) is in line with its historical norms (35.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $60.15, while resistance sits at $69.58. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: FRPT scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.31 (+33.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $60.15, while resistance sits at $69.58. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: FRPT scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.31 (+33.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$59.09 -
$65.77
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FRPT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 33.1% below Wall St target ($83.31)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$59.09 -
$65.77
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.11
(7.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$60.15
Resistance Level
$69.58
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.23
Wall Street Target
$83.31
(+33.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
32.2 vs 35.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.58
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$58.64
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$56.76
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→36)
$62.51
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.2, Growth: 16.4%)
$98.80
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.4%)
$60.87
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 16.4%)
$51.74
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.79
Bull Case
$37.22
(-41%)
Analyst growth -48.8%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$33.83
(-46%)
Market implied -48.8%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$44.91
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.2 to 35.5
Stabilization Target:
$68.92
(+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FRPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced FRPT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FRPT price and gamma walls.
