Freshpet (FRPT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FRPT - Freshpet, Inc.
$60.86
3.14 (5.44%)
â˛
5d:
+5.09%
30d:
-14.0%
90d:
+12.52%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FRPT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FRPT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.31
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRPT is currently trading at $60.86, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.98 to $70.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 29.4) compared to its historical average (35.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $56.00, while resistance sits at $63.07. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: FRPT scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.25 (+46.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $56.00, while resistance sits at $63.07. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: FRPT scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.25 (+46.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$58.98 -
$70.92
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
96.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FRPT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 46.0% below Wall St target ($84.25)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.98 -
$70.92
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$4.38
(7.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.00
Resistance Level
$63.07
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.41
Wall Street Target
$84.25
(+46.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
29.4 vs 35.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.08
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$50.68
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$47.48
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29â36)
$57.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.4, Growth: 16.9%)
$92.30
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 16.9%)
$64.02
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 16.9%)
$54.42
(-6%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.89
Bull Case
$31.94
(-45%)
Analyst growth -49.5%, PE expands to 16.3
Base Case
$29.04
(-50%)
Market implied -49.5%, PE stable at 14.8
Bear Case
$39.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.4 to 35.7
Stabilization Target:
$70.06
(+21.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FRPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced FRPT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FRPT price and gamma walls.
