STX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STX - Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary Shares (Ireland)
$831.06
-25.07 (-2.93%)
▼
5d:
+1.72%
30d:
+1.33%
90d:
+14.32%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1386.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$860.91
3.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STX is currently trading at $831.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $797.29 to $927.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 29.2) compared to its historical average (26.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $698.99, while resistance sits at $936.49.
Market Sentiment: STX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1106.09 (+33.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $698.99, while resistance sits at $936.49.
Market Sentiment: STX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1106.09 (+33.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$797.29 -
$927.60
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.1% below Wall St target ($1106.09)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$797.29 -
$927.60
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$698.99
Resistance Level
$936.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.18
Wall Street Target
$1106.09
(+33.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
48.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
149.1%
Profit Margin
26.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
29.2 vs 26.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$858.48
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$886.81
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$916.08
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$831.92
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.2, Growth: 91.3%)
$2804.83
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 91.3%)
$1992.54
(+140%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 91.3%)
$1693.66
(+104%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 23.92 | Forward EPS (Implied): $34.74
Bull Case
$1003.50
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 25.1
Base Case
$831.06
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.9
Bear Case
$635.76
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William D Mosley
SELL
20000 shares
2026-04-01
William D Mosley
SELL
24584 shares
2026-03-19
William D Mosley
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-02
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