Is TMO stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TMO is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TMO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of TMO stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TMO to be between $527.23 and $586.16. The current price is $588.29.

What is the analyst price target for TMO?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TMO is $631.42. This implies a potential upside of 6.0% from current levels.

TMO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TMO - Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc.

MEASURING & CONTROLLING DEVICES, NEC

$588.29

-7.60 (-1.28%) ▼

5d: -0.96%

30d: +8.3%

90d: +31.25%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 21, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 11, 2026 at $605.00 · last confirmed Aug 11, 2026

Strength: 6.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TMO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 9.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$754.48

Based on 6.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$468.47

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TMO is currently trading at $588.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $527.23 to $586.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.7) is in line with its historical norms (19.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $562.50, while resistance sits at $606.75.

Market Sentiment: TMO scores 19/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $527.23 - $586.16

Company Quality Score 45/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 24.8%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (19/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($631.42)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $527.23 - $586.16

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $562.50

Resistance Level $606.75

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 21.66

Wall Street Target $631.42 (+6.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 9.4%

Profit Margin 15.0%

Valuation Premium vs History +3.0% premium

PE vs Historical 21.7 vs 19.8 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +3.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $613.77 (+3%)

2-Year Target $632.18 (+6%)

3-Year Target $651.15 (+9%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 22→20) PE COMPRESSION $595.22 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.7, Growth: 9.5%) $782.82 (+31%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 9.5%) $731.13 (+23%)

Bear: (PE: 17.2, Growth: 9.5%) $621.46 (+4%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 32.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.51

Bull Case $985.86 (+68%)

Analyst growth 48.6%, PE expands to 35.8

Base Case $896.23 (+52%)

Market implied 48.6%, PE stable at 32.6

Bear Case $410.05 (-30%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 15, 2026 6:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:30 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-10

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-06

Marc N Casper SELL 5000 shares 2026-03-04

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