VALE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VALE - VALE S.A.
$15.77
-0.29 (-1.81%)
▼
5d:
-4.71%
30d:
-1.0%
90d:
+2.27%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Get Alerted When VALE Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VALE is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: VALE is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.73
Based on -0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VALE is currently trading at $15.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.05 to $16.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.9) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VALE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VALE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.05 -
$16.78
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.28)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.05 -
$16.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.98
Resistance Level
$16.94
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.88
Wall Street Target
$17.28
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.0%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.98
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$16.18
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$16.39
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.82
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -5.2%)
$37.41
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: -5.2%)
$13.45
(-15%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: -5.2%)
$11.43
(-28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.66
Bull Case
$35.33
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 26.8
Base Case
$32.12
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.3
Bear Case
$10.92
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 05, 2026 8:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is VALE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Parenti Grazielle Tallia
BUY
10464 shares
2026-04-01
Sobrinho Sami Arap
BUY
12990 shares
2026-04-01
Top Rated Other Industrial Metals & Mining Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Other Industrial Metals & Mining by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
TECK
Teck Resources Ltd Class… |
STRONG BUY
23 analysts |
$48 | 60 HOLD |
|
WRN
Western Copper and Gold … |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$6 | 57 HOLD |
|
MP
MP Materials Corp |
STRONG BUY
9 analysts |
$80 | 57 HOLD |
|
LAC
Lithium Americas Corp |
HOLD
15 analysts |
$6 | 55 HOLD |
|
RIO
Rio Tinto ADR |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$101 | 54 HOLD |
