What is the fair value of MP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MP to be between $50.45 and $58.40. The current price is $50.51.

What is the analyst price target for MP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MP is $75.38. This implies a potential upside of 49.2% from current levels.

MP Materials (MP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MP - MP Materials Corp.

METAL MINING

$50.51

-0.81 (-1.58%) ▼

5d: -6.08%

30d: -6.65%

90d: -11.66%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 05, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $54.53 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 8.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: MP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$31.37

Based on 7.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$19.48

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MP is currently trading at $50.51, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.45 to $58.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 56.4) compared to its historical average (63.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $50.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: MP scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.38 (+49.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $50.45 - $58.40

Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (21/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 49.2% below Wall St target ($75.38)
WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $50.45 - $58.40

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $50.33

Resistance Level $59.80

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 56.40

Wall Street Target $75.38 (+49.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 119.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -55.6%

Profit Margin -14.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -4.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 56.4 vs 63.9 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -4.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $48.44 (-4%)

2-Year Target $46.45 (-8%)

3-Year Target $44.55 (-12%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 56→64) $50.47 (0%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 56.4 to 63.9

Stabilization Target: $57.23 (+13.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +13.3%

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Last updated: September 11, 2026 10:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

James H Litinsky SELL 259179 shares 2026-04-20

James H Litinsky SELL 40821 shares 2026-04-17

Ryan Corbett SELL 46000 shares 2026-03-17

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Advanced MP Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MP price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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