VALE (VALE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VALE - VALE S.A.
$15.23
-0.05 (-0.33%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.52%
30d:
+5.62%
90d:
-0.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VALE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VALE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.97
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VALE is currently trading at $15.23, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.20 to $15.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$14.20 -
$15.38
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.68)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with 6.4% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.20 -
$15.38
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.89
Resistance Level
$16.02
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.77
Wall Street Target
$16.68
(+9.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.5%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.41
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$15.60
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$15.78
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â8)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.23
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 4.2%)
$44.70
(+194%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 4.2%)
$17.22
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 4.2%)
$14.64
(-4%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$33.62
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.6
Base Case
$30.56
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.6
Bear Case
$10.39
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 11:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VALE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Parenti Grazielle Tallia
BUY
10464 shares
2026-04-01
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BUY
12990 shares
2026-04-01
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