VALE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VALE - VALE S.A.
$14.46
0.24 (1.69%)
▲
5d:
-3.54%
30d:
-4.49%
90d:
-13.15%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VALE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VALE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.41
Based on 0.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VALE is currently trading at $14.46, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.67 to $15.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $14.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VALE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.06 (+18.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $14.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VALE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.06 (+18.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.67 -
$15.88
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.06)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.67 -
$15.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.76
Resistance Level
$16.94
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.25
Wall Street Target
$17.06
(+18.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.0%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.24
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$14.03
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$13.82
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$14.49
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -3.3%)
$39.29
(+172%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: -3.3%)
$13.07
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: -3.3%)
$11.11
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.67
Bull Case
$31.28
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.4
Base Case
$28.44
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 21.2
Bear Case
$9.67
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$15.17
(+4.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 8:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VALE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Parenti Grazielle Tallia
BUY
10464 shares
2026-04-01
Sobrinho Sami Arap
BUY
12990 shares
2026-04-01
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