VALE (VALE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VALE - VALE S.A.
$12.70
-0.32 (-2.46%)
▼
5d:
-3.86%
30d:
-10.5%
90d:
-14.36%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
6d
Get Alerted When VALE Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VALE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VALE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.89
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VALE is currently trading at $12.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.17 to $14.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.8) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VALE scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.26 (+28.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VALE scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.26 (+28.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.17 -
$14.16
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.0% below Wall St target ($16.26)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.17 -
$14.16
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.63
Resistance Level
$13.82
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.81
Wall Street Target
$16.26
(+28.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.5%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.32
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$11.95
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$11.59
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$12.76
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.1%)
$44.25
(+248%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 6.1%)
$15.18
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 6.1%)
$12.90
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$28.64
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 28.6
Base Case
$26.04
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.0
Bear Case
$8.85
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$13.98
(+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 2:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:58 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is VALE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Other Industrial Metals & Mining Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Other Industrial Metals & Mining by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
MP
MP Materials Corp |
STRONG BUY
19 analysts |
$72 | 65 BUY |
|
TECK
Teck Resources Ltd Class… |
STRONG BUY
23 analysts |
$53 | 46 HOLD |
|
USAR
USA Rare Earth, Inc. |
STRONG BUY
9 analysts |
$36 | 56 HOLD |
|
ALM
Almonty Industries Inc. … |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$24 | 54 HOLD |
|
WRN
Western Copper and Gold … |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$6 | 54 HOLD |
