VALE (VALE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VALE - VALE S.A.
$13.45
0.04 (0.30%)
▲
5d:
-0.81%
30d:
-11.04%
90d:
-10.27%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VALE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VALE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.47
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VALE is currently trading at $13.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.85 to $15.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.0) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.70 (+24.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VALE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.70 (+24.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.85 -
$15.35
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.1% below Wall St target ($16.70)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.85 -
$15.35
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.16
Resistance Level
$14.41
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.96
Wall Street Target
$16.70
(+24.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.5%
Profit Margin
4.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.13
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$12.81
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$12.50
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$13.48
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 3.6%)
$43.90
(+226%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 3.6%)
$14.97
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 3.6%)
$12.73
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$29.50
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.5
Base Case
$26.82
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.8
Bear Case
$9.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$14.50
(+7.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VALE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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