Rio Tinto (RIO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RIO - Rio Tinto plc
$99.96
0.57 (0.57%)
â˛
5d:
-2.8%
30d:
-1.24%
90d:
-3.55%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RIO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RIO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$97.91
Based on -0.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RIO is currently trading at $99.96, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $98.60 to $104.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $98.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RIO scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $98.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RIO scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$98.60 -
$104.26
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($104.09)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$98.60 -
$104.26
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$98.90
Resistance Level
$105.87
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.56
Wall Street Target
$104.09
(+4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.9%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$100.46
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$100.96
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$101.47
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$100.10
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -4.2%)
$174.25
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: -4.2%)
$99.84
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: -4.2%)
$84.86
(-15%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.38
Bull Case
$128.14
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.2%, PE expands to 14.8
Base Case
$116.50
(+17%)
Market implied 17.2%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$67.59
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 12:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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