RIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RIO - Rio Tinto plc
$96.85
-0.33 (-0.34%)
▼
5d:
+6.17%
30d:
+3.75%
90d:
-3.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.23
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RIO is currently trading at $96.85, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.29 to $95.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 46.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $97.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RIO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $97.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RIO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$90.29 -
$95.36
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($105.85)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$90.29 -
$95.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$88.62
Resistance Level
$97.53
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.98
Wall Street Target
$105.85
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.9%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 11.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$95.78
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$94.73
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$93.69
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$96.42
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 2.6%)
$197.66
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 2.6%)
$104.70
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 2.6%)
$88.99
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.66
Bull Case
$123.09
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.1%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$111.90
(+16%)
Market implied 15.1%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$66.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$99.67
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 8:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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