Rio Tinto (RIO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$84.97
+0.43 (+0.51%)
▲
5d:
+0.48%
30d:
-8.69%
90d:
-13.47%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
76/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$83.18 – $92.27
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.0x
CHEAP
vs 11.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$105.29
+23.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$81.21 / $87.00
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RIO appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.8% annual earnings decline despite 47% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$185.62
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$115.26
26.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RIO is currently trading at $84.97, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.18 to $92.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.0) compared to its historical average (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 46.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RIO scores 82/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.29 (+23.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RIO scores 82/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.29 (+23.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$83.18 -
$92.27
Company Quality Score
76/100
(STRONG BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$83.18 -
$92.27
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$81.21
Resistance Level
$87.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (82/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.9% below Wall St target ($105.29)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 82/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.98
Wall Street Target
$105.29
(+23.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.9%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 11.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.74
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$78.63
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$75.65
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$84.86
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 98.7%)
$174.08
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 98.7%)
$87.51
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 98.7%)
$74.38
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.38
Bull Case
$107.24
(+26%)
Analyst growth 15.3%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$97.49
(+15%)
Market implied 15.3%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$57.49
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 11.2
Stabilization Target:
$95.32
(+12.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.2%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (RIO)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Oct 14, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on RIO are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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