Rio Tinto (RIO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RIO - Rio Tinto plc
$83.97
-2.95 (-3.39%)
▼
5d:
-6.92%
30d:
-11.84%
90d:
-7.95%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RIO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RIO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$187.28
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.29
27.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RIO is currently trading at $83.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.31 to $96.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 46.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: RIO scores 17/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.71 (+18.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: RIO scores 17/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.71 (+18.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$90.31 -
$96.96
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (17/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($102.71)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$90.31 -
$96.96
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.92
Resistance Level
$94.78
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.21
Wall Street Target
$102.71
(+18.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.9%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 11.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.96
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$81.11
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$78.35
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$86.69
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 98.7%)
$174.08
(+100%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 98.7%)
$89.52
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 98.7%)
$76.09
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.38
Bull Case
$111.84
(+29%)
Analyst growth 15.3%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$101.67
(+17%)
Market implied 15.3%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$59.95
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$96.17
(+10.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 3:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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