VVV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VVV - Valvoline Inc.
$38.32
0.78 (2.08%)
▲
5d:
+0.47%
30d:
+15.35%
90d:
+13.74%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VVV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VVV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.82
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.52
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VVV is currently trading at $38.32, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.38 to $37.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.6) is in line with its historical norms (17.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VVV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.20 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VVV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.20 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$33.38 -
$37.36
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($42.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.38 -
$37.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.97
Resistance Level
$37.43
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.57
Wall Street Target
$42.20
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.5%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 17.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.51
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$40.73
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$42.00
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.44
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.0%)
$73.85
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 18.0%)
$62.96
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 18.0%)
$53.52
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 16.98 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.26
Bull Case
$46.27
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$38.32
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$29.31
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 12:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VVV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie Marie O'daniel
SELL
4312 shares
2026-02-20
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