VVV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VVV - Valvoline Inc.
$34.65
0.71 (2.09%)
▲
5d:
+0.2%
30d:
+7.91%
90d:
-6.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VVV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VVV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.47
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.31
4.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VVV is currently trading at $34.65, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.37 to $34.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.8) is in line with its historical norms (16.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VVV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.20 (+21.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VVV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.20 (+21.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$32.37 -
$34.43
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.8% below Wall St target ($42.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.37 -
$34.43
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.41
Resistance Level
$35.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.79
Wall Street Target
$42.20
(+21.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.5%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 16.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.62
(0%)
2-Year Target
$34.58
(0%)
3-Year Target
$34.55
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
$34.77
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 18.0%)
$74.29
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 18.0%)
$56.93
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 18.0%)
$48.39
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.75
Bull Case
$74.90
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 49.9
Base Case
$68.09
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 45.4
Bear Case
$23.15
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 16.9
Stabilization Target:
$34.87
(+0.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 10:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VVV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie Marie O'daniel
SELL
4312 shares
2026-02-20
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