VVV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VVV - Valvoline Inc.
$38.96
0.65 (1.70%)
▲
5d:
-2.53%
30d:
-1.64%
90d:
+20.51%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VVV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VVV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.28
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VVV is currently trading at $38.96, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.03 to $39.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.9) is in line with its historical norms (17.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.67, while resistance sits at $41.08.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.67, while resistance sits at $41.08.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$38.03 -
$39.64
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.03 -
$39.64
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.67
Resistance Level
$41.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.87
Wall Street Target
$43.33
(+11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.5%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
18.9 vs 17.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.17
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$41.41
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$42.70
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.92
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 17.8%)
$70.30
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 17.8%)
$63.75
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.0, Growth: 17.8%)
$54.18
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 17.67 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.21
Bull Case
$47.04
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 18.6
Base Case
$38.96
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.7
Bear Case
$29.80
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 26, 2026 7:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VVV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie Marie O'daniel
SELL
4312 shares
2026-02-20
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