VVV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VVV - Valvoline Inc.
$38.55
-0.09 (-0.23%)
▼
5d:
-0.1%
30d:
+6.14%
90d:
+14.15%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VVV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VVV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.16
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VVV is currently trading at $38.55, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.83 to $39.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.7) is in line with its historical norms (17.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$36.83 -
$39.28
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($42.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.83 -
$39.28
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.97
Resistance Level
$37.43
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.68
Wall Street Target
$42.20
(+9.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.5%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
18.7 vs 17.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.67
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$40.82
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$42.00
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.45
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.0%)
$73.85
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.7, Growth: 18.0%)
$63.34
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: 18.0%)
$53.84
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 17.48 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.21
Bull Case
$46.55
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 18.4
Base Case
$38.55
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$29.49
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VVV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie Marie O'daniel
SELL
4312 shares
2026-02-20
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VVV price and gamma walls.
