VVV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VVV - Valvoline Inc.
$38.79
0.38 (0.99%)
▲
5d:
-1.95%
30d:
-0.74%
90d:
+18.95%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VVV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VVV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.27
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VVV is currently trading at $38.79, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.40 to $39.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.6) is in line with its historical norms (17.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.60 (+13.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.60 (+13.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$38.40 -
$39.79
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.60)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.40 -
$39.79
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.99
Resistance Level
$40.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.63
Wall Street Target
$43.60
(+13.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.5%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 17.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.41
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$40.43
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$41.48
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.51
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 17.6%)
$69.44
(+81%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 17.6%)
$62.42
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 17.6%)
$53.05
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 17.95 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.14
Bull Case
$46.38
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$38.41
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 18.0
Bear Case
$29.38
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 16.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 4:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VVV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie Marie O'daniel
SELL
4312 shares
2026-02-20
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