Valvoline (VVV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VVV - Valvoline Inc.
$30.58
-0.20 (-0.65%)
▼
5d:
+5.74%
30d:
-3.93%
90d:
-20.76%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 18, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VVV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VVV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.55
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.39
2.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VVV is currently trading at $30.58, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.25 to $32.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (17.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.49. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.25 (+41.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VVV is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.49. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.25 (+41.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$28.25 -
$32.08
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VVV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.4% below Wall St target ($43.25)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (40/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.25 -
$32.08
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.21
Resistance Level
$31.49
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.40
Wall Street Target
$43.25
(+41.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.7%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 17.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.60
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$28.65
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$27.74
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$30.63
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 12.9%)
$58.36
(+91%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 12.9%)
$44.04
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 12.9%)
$37.43
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.81
Bull Case
$67.72
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 41.8
Base Case
$61.56
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.0
Bear Case
$20.93
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 17.0
Stabilization Target:
$33.77
(+10.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VVV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced VVV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VVV price and gamma walls.
