ABEV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABEV - AMBEV S.A.
$3.05
-0.06 (-1.93%)
▼
5d:
-0.65%
30d:
-1.61%
90d:
+5.17%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABEV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABEV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.00
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABEV is currently trading at $3.05, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.04 to $3.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.2) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABEV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ABEV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABEV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ABEV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$3.04 -
$3.14
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($3.32)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.04 -
$3.14
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.97
Resistance Level
$3.17
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.23
Wall Street Target
$3.32
(+9.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.9%
Profit Margin
18.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.04
(0%)
2-Year Target
$3.04
(0%)
3-Year Target
$3.03
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$3.05
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 6.9%)
$5.43
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 6.9%)
$3.73
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 6.9%)
$3.17
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.20
Bull Case
$3.67
(+20%)
Analyst growth 7.2%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$3.33
(+9%)
Market implied 7.2%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$2.11
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$3.07
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 5:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABEV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
De Lacerda Eduardo Caval…
SELL
152386 shares
2026-03-27
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