AMBEV (ABEV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABEV - AMBEV S.A.
$2.99
0.09 (3.10%)
▲
5d:
+2.75%
30d:
+0.0%
90d:
-2.61%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ABEV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ABEV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.94
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABEV is currently trading at $2.99, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.89 to $3.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.1) is in line with its historical norms (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 24.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABEV is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: ABEV scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.35 (+11.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABEV is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: ABEV scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.35 (+11.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$2.89 -
$3.01
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (77/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($3.35)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 16% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.89 -
$3.01
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.83
Resistance Level
$3.03
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.05
Wall Street Target
$3.35
(+11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.6%
Profit Margin
18.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 14.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.98
(0%)
2-Year Target
$2.98
(0%)
3-Year Target
$2.97
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$3.00
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 6.9%)
$5.31
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 6.9%)
$3.66
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 6.9%)
$3.11
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.20
Bull Case
$3.39
(+14%)
Analyst growth 6.4%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$3.09
(+3%)
Market implied 6.4%, PE stable at 14.5
Bear Case
$1.97
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$3.02
(+1.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABEV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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