AMBEV (ABEV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABEV - AMBEV S.A.
$3.02
-0.02 (-0.66%)
▼
5d:
-0.66%
30d:
+7.09%
90d:
-6.21%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ABEV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ABEV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.94
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABEV is currently trading at $3.02, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.84 to $3.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.1) is in line with its historical norms (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 24.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABEV is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ABEV scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.34 (+10.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABEV is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ABEV scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.34 (+10.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$2.84 -
$3.02
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($3.34)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.84 -
$3.02
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.82
Resistance Level
$3.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.14
Wall Street Target
$3.34
(+10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.6%
Profit Margin
18.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 14.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.02
(0%)
2-Year Target
$3.01
(0%)
3-Year Target
$3.01
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$3.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.7%)
$5.24
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 6.7%)
$3.67
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 6.7%)
$3.12
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.20
Bull Case
$3.57
(+18%)
Analyst growth 6.8%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$3.25
(+8%)
Market implied 6.8%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$2.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$3.03
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 9:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:53 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABEV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
De Lacerda Eduardo Caval…
SELL
152386 shares
2026-03-27
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