ABEV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABEV - AMBEV S.A.
$3.16
0.02 (0.64%)
▲
5d:
-2.77%
30d:
-3.36%
90d:
+12.86%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ABEV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ABEV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.51
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABEV is currently trading at $3.16, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.12 to $3.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABEV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABEV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$3.12 -
$3.24
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($3.39)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.12 -
$3.24
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.10
Resistance Level
$3.32
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.45
Wall Street Target
$3.39
(+7.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Profit Margin
17.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.17
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$3.19
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$3.20
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$3.17
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.3%)
$6.57
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 11.3%)
$4.36
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 11.3%)
$3.70
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.19
Bull Case
$3.98
(+26%)
Analyst growth 15.1%, PE expands to 18.2
Base Case
$3.61
(+14%)
Market implied 15.1%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$2.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABEV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
De Lacerda Eduardo Caval…
SELL
152386 shares
2026-03-27
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