STZ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STZ - Constellation Brands, Inc.
$131.43
1.20 (0.92%)
▲
5d:
+1.33%
30d:
-4.39%
90d:
-14.0%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STZ appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.7% annual earnings decline despite 31% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STZ appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.7% annual earnings decline despite 31% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$187.49
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STZ is currently trading at $131.43, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $129.43 to $138.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.5) compared to its historical average (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 30.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $128.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.83 (+31.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $128.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.83 (+31.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$129.43 -
$138.05
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.2% below Wall St target ($170.83)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$129.43 -
$138.05
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$128.28
Resistance Level
$135.09
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.53
Wall Street Target
$170.83
(+31.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.7%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 11.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$125.41
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$120.77
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$116.30
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$130.28
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 6.3%)
$307.47
(+136%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 6.3%)
$156.24
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 6.3%)
$132.80
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.39
Bull Case
$170.65
(+31%)
Analyst growth 19.0%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$155.14
(+19%)
Market implied 19.0%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$88.66
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 11.8
Stabilization Target:
$145.88
(+12.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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