Constellation Brands (STZ) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$144.60
+0.48 (+0.33%)
▲
5d:
+0.03%
30d:
+13.49%
90d:
+3.89%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 06, 2026
0d
Protect STZ Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (25%)
Quality Score
27/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$124.13 – $142.16
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.7x
FAIR
vs 11.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$152.91
+5.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$132.00 / $149.43
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: STZ shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 5, 2026 at $144.56 · last confirmed Nov 6, 2026
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.14
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STZ is currently trading at $144.60, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $124.13 to $142.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $132.00, while resistance sits at $149.43.
Market Sentiment: STZ scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $132.00, while resistance sits at $149.43.
Market Sentiment: STZ scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$124.13 -
$142.16
Company Quality Score
27/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$124.13 -
$142.16
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$132.00
Resistance Level
$149.43
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding STZ? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($152.91)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 27/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.70
Wall Street Target
$152.91
(+5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.3%
Profit Margin
20.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$145.90
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$147.21
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$148.54
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$144.78
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.3%)
$294.57
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 6.3%)
$173.48
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 6.3%)
$147.46
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.17
Bull Case
$175.46
(+21%)
Analyst growth 10.7%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$159.51
(+10%)
Market implied 10.7%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$98.00
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (STZ)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 31, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits shows bullish sentiment towards $STZ after a successful October. No newsworthy events reported on Yahoo Finance.
Key Retail Themes:
Positive company performance
Strong investor confidence
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 6:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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