Constellation Brands (STZ) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STZ - Constellation Brands, Inc.
$138.68
-0.30 (-0.22%)
▼
5d:
+5.58%
30d:
+21.43%
90d:
+6.92%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: STZ shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: STZ shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.14
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STZ is currently trading at $138.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.41 to $130.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STZ scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STZ scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$114.41 -
$130.03
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
Protect Your Profits
STZ is technically overbought (RSI 76). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.7% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($150.87)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$114.41 -
$130.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$123.16
Resistance Level
$139.92
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.24
Wall Street Target
$150.87
(+8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.3%
Profit Margin
20.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$138.42
(0%)
2-Year Target
$137.87
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$137.32
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$139.25
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.3%)
$294.57
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 6.3%)
$166.74
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 6.3%)
$141.73
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.17
Bull Case
$160.73
(+16%)
Analyst growth 10.7%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$146.12
(+5%)
Market implied 10.7%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$89.77
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.2 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$140.94
(+1.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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