Accel Entertainment (ACEL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACEL - Accel Entertainment, Inc.
$10.97
0.19 (1.76%)
â˛
5d:
-0.81%
30d:
-0.99%
90d:
-8.81%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ACEL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ACEL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.61
33.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACEL is currently trading at $10.97, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.81 to $11.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.7) compared to its historical average (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 87.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACEL scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.57 (+41.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACEL scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.57 (+41.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.81 -
$11.30
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.9% below Wall St target ($15.57)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.81 -
$11.30
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.73
Resistance Level
$11.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.67
Wall Street Target
$15.57
(+41.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
87.5%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 12.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.18
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$9.45
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$8.77
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â12)
$10.98
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 28.6%)
$47.99
(+337%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 28.6%)
$23.35
(+113%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 28.6%)
$19.85
(+81%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.67
Bull Case
$20.09
(+83%)
Analyst growth 69.4%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$18.26
(+67%)
Market implied 69.4%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$7.33
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 12.1
Stabilization Target:
$13.73
(+25.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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