ACEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACEL - Accel Entertainment, Inc.
$12.03
0.01 (0.08%)
▲
5d:
-2.91%
30d:
-5.79%
90d:
-3.22%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ACEL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ACEL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.35
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACEL is currently trading at $12.03, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.07 to $12.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.3) is in line with its historical norms (12.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACEL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+28.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACEL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+28.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.07 -
$12.77
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.8% below Wall St target ($15.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.07 -
$12.77
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.73
Resistance Level
$12.54
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.34
Wall Street Target
$15.50
(+28.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 12.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.96
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$11.89
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$11.81
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$12.07
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.8%)
$28.97
(+141%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 12.8%)
$17.25
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 12.8%)
$14.66
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.58
Bull Case
$22.12
(+84%)
Analyst growth 68.1%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$20.11
(+67%)
Market implied 68.1%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$8.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 12.6
Stabilization Target:
$12.28
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Derek Harmer
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-13
Gordon Rubenstein
SELL
3766 shares
2026-03-12
Gordon Rubenstein
SELL
172943 shares
2026-03-12
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