Accel Entertainment (ACEL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACEL - Accel Entertainment, Inc.
$11.60
0.07 (0.61%)
▲
5d:
-1.69%
30d:
-6.0%
90d:
-13.5%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACEL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACEL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.08
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.19
28.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACEL is currently trading at $11.60, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.70 to $12.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.7) compared to its historical average (12.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 87.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $11.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.57 (+34.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $11.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.57 (+34.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.70 -
$12.24
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.2% below Wall St target ($15.57)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.70 -
$12.24
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.47
Resistance Level
$11.95
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.74
Wall Street Target
$15.57
(+34.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
87.5%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 12.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.07
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$10.56
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$10.07
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$11.63
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 30.4%)
$48.31
(+316%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 30.4%)
$25.72
(+122%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 30.4%)
$21.86
(+89%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.66
Bull Case
$20.75
(+79%)
Analyst growth 63.6%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$18.87
(+63%)
Market implied 63.6%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$7.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.7 to 12.4
Stabilization Target:
$13.39
(+15.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 11:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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