Aebi Schmidt (AEBI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AEBI - Aebi Schmidt Holding AG Common Stock
$11.19
-0.04 (-0.36%)
▼
5d:
-0.27%
30d:
-3.53%
90d:
-14.51%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AEBI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AEBI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.83
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.04
30.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AEBI is currently trading at $11.19, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.84 to $11.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.4) compared to its historical average (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AEBI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.00 (+51.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AEBI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.00 (+51.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.84 -
$11.73
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.9% below Wall St target ($17.00)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (53/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.84 -
$11.73
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.79
Resistance Level
$11.38
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.36
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+51.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
78.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-82.0%
Profit Margin
1.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 11.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.59
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$10.01
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$9.47
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$11.23
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 63.7%)
$80.10
(+616%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 63.7%)
$37.77
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 63.7%)
$32.10
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.31
Bull Case
$24.71
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 39.9
Base Case
$22.46
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.2
Bear Case
$7.64
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$13.26
(+18.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AEBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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