AEBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AEBI - Aebi Schmidt Holding AG Common Stock
$12.42
-0.06 (-0.48%)
▼
5d:
+1.8%
30d:
+4.72%
90d:
+25.08%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AEBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AEBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.55
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.59
36.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AEBI is currently trading at $12.42, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.86 to $12.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AEBI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.77, while resistance sits at $12.80.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+20.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AEBI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.77, while resistance sits at $12.80.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+20.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$11.86 -
$12.57
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.8% below Wall St target ($15.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.86 -
$12.57
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.77
Resistance Level
$12.80
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.20
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(+20.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
82.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-82.0%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 12.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.36
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$10.40
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$9.51
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$12.41
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 87.5%)
$99.24
(+699%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 87.5%)
$41.92
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 87.5%)
$35.63
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.60 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.58
Bull Case
$15.00
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$12.42
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.6
Bear Case
$9.50
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$16.20
(+30.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AEBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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