AESI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AESI - Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.
$16.41
-0.07 (-0.42%)
▼
5d:
-1.2%
30d:
-15.72%
90d:
+29.52%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AESI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AESI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.00
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AESI is currently trading at $16.41, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.41 to $18.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 47.9) compared to its historical average (59.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AESI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.56, while resistance sits at $17.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.92 (+21.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AESI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.56, while resistance sits at $17.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.92 (+21.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$16.41 -
$18.78
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.4% below Wall St target ($19.92)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.41 -
$18.78
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.56
Resistance Level
$17.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
47.91
Wall Street Target
$19.92
(+21.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-96.2%
Profit Margin
-9.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
47.9 vs 59.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.29
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$14.25
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$13.28
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 48→59)
$16.44
(+0%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 47.9 to 59.3
Stabilization Target:
$20.31
(+23.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AESI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chris Scholla
SELL
8912 shares
2026-03-06
Gregory M Shepard
SELL
130000 shares
2026-02-18
Gregory M Shepard
SELL
100000 shares
2026-02-17
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