ALRM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRM - Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
$43.08
-0.62 (-1.42%)
▼
5d:
-5.26%
30d:
-1.46%
90d:
-4.27%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALRM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALRM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.72
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRM is currently trading at $43.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.81 to $45.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.5) compared to its historical average (16.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $59.00 (+37.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $59.00 (+37.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$43.81 -
$45.81
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.0% below Wall St target ($59.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.81 -
$45.81
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.06
Resistance Level
$47.19
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.54
Wall Street Target
$59.00
(+37.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.3%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 16.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.27
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$39.54
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$37.88
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$42.98
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.9%)
$78.82
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 6.9%)
$52.62
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 6.9%)
$44.73
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.41
Bull Case
$59.17
(+37%)
Analyst growth 22.9%, PE expands to 20.0
Base Case
$53.79
(+25%)
Market implied 22.9%, PE stable at 18.2
Bear Case
$29.75
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 16.5
Stabilization Target:
$48.88
(+13.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 12:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:32 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Christopher Bradley
SELL
1510 shares
2026-03-18
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