Alarm.com (ALRM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRM - Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
$55.36
0.19 (0.34%)
▲
5d:
-2.41%
30d:
-0.18%
90d:
+19.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALRM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALRM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.37
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.21
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRM is currently trading at $55.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.55 to $57.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.0) is in line with its historical norms (16.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALRM scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.00 (+13.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALRM scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.00 (+13.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$55.55 -
$57.24
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($63.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.2% growth with 9.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$55.55 -
$57.24
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.21
Resistance Level
$58.07
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.03
Wall Street Target
$63.00
(+13.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-23.4%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 16.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.58
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$57.82
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$59.09
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$55.38
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.1%)
$74.00
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 6.1%)
$66.16
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 6.1%)
$56.24
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.26
Bull Case
$82.44
(+49%)
Analyst growth 35.8%, PE expands to 26.9
Base Case
$74.94
(+35%)
Market implied 35.8%, PE stable at 24.4
Bear Case
$37.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Christopher Bradley
SELL
1510 shares
2026-03-18
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