Alarm.com (ALRM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRM - Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
$54.68
-0.18 (-0.33%)
▼
5d:
+2.44%
30d:
-3.31%
90d:
+9.65%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALRM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALRM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.76
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRM is currently trading at $54.68, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.85 to $56.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.8) is in line with its historical norms (17.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $55.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALRM scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.00 (+15.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $55.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALRM scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.00 (+15.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$53.85 -
$56.70
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($63.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with 9.2% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 18% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$53.85 -
$56.70
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.12
Resistance Level
$55.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.81
Wall Street Target
$63.00
(+15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-23.4%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 17.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.55
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$56.44
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$57.35
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$54.74
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 6.1%)
$74.85
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 6.1%)
$65.35
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 6.1%)
$55.55
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.26
Bull Case
$81.97
(+50%)
Analyst growth 35.8%, PE expands to 26.7
Base Case
$74.52
(+36%)
Market implied 35.8%, PE stable at 24.3
Bear Case
$37.30
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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