Alarm.com (ALRM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRM - Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
$62.49
2.95 (4.95%)
▲
5d:
+8.41%
30d:
+17.13%
90d:
+20.68%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALRM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALRM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$67.15
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.70
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRM is currently trading at $62.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.51 to $57.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.4) compared to its historical average (17.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $62.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALRM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $62.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALRM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$53.51 -
$57.70
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.3% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($63.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.1% growth with 9.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$53.51 -
$57.70
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.10
Resistance Level
$62.56
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.36
Wall Street Target
$63.00
(+0.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-23.4%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.1% premium
PE vs Historical
20.4 vs 17.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.30
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$70.35
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$74.64
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$62.70
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 6.1%)
$74.68
(+20%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.1%)
$72.87
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 6.1%)
$61.94
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.26
Bull Case
$88.97
(+42%)
Analyst growth 35.8%, PE expands to 29.0
Base Case
$80.88
(+29%)
Market implied 35.8%, PE stable at 26.4
Bear Case
$40.49
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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