ALRM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRM - Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
$57.51
0.45 (0.79%)
▲
5d:
+3.49%
30d:
+13.88%
90d:
+31.54%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALRM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALRM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.97
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRM is currently trading at $57.51, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.82 to $56.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.7) compared to its historical average (16.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $57.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $57.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$52.82 -
$56.78
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($63.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.7% growth with 9.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$52.82 -
$56.78
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.07
Resistance Level
$57.91
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.73
Wall Street Target
$63.00
(+9.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-23.4%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
18.7 vs 16.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.64
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$61.84
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$64.13
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$57.52
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 6.1%)
$73.64
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.7, Growth: 6.1%)
$68.73
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: 6.1%)
$58.42
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.25
Bull Case
$85.64
(+49%)
Analyst growth 36.4%, PE expands to 27.9
Base Case
$77.86
(+35%)
Market implied 36.4%, PE stable at 25.4
Bear Case
$38.80
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 10:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Christopher Bradley
SELL
1510 shares
2026-03-18
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