ALRM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRM - Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
$52.24
0.74 (1.44%)
▲
5d:
+4.75%
30d:
+13.2%
90d:
+22.49%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALRM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALRM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.21
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.87
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRM is currently trading at $52.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.32 to $49.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.6) is in line with its historical norms (16.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $52.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALRM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.00 (+14.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $52.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALRM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.00 (+14.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$44.32 -
$49.75
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.0% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($60.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.1% growth with 11.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.32 -
$49.75
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.79
Resistance Level
$52.37
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.58
Wall Street Target
$60.00
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.3%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
17.6 vs 16.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.34
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$54.46
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$55.60
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$52.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.1%)
$79.45
(+52%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.6, Growth: 7.1%)
$64.13
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 7.1%)
$54.51
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.41
Bull Case
$69.85
(+34%)
Analyst growth 23.3%, PE expands to 23.5
Base Case
$63.50
(+22%)
Market implied 23.3%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$35.02
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 1:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Christopher Bradley
SELL
1510 shares
2026-03-18
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