Alarm.com (ALRM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$66.29
+0.43 (+0.65%)
▲
5d:
-2.46%
30d:
+17.77%
90d:
+18.82%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (21%)
Quality Score
49/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$56.87 – $65.91
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
21.4x
STRETCHED
vs 17.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$73.00
+10.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$63.60 / $69.40
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALRM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.05
Based on 3.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRM is currently trading at $66.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.87 to $65.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.4) compared to its historical average (17.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.4% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $63.60, while resistance sits at $69.39.
Market Sentiment: ALRM scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $73.00 (+10.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $63.60, while resistance sits at $69.39.
Market Sentiment: ALRM scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $73.00 (+10.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$56.87 -
$65.91
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
21.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$56.87 -
$65.91
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$63.60
Resistance Level
$69.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($73.00)
- BEARISH: Market expects 7.4% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.42
Wall Street Target
$73.00
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.4% premium
PE vs Historical
21.4 vs 17.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.20
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$76.46
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$82.12
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$66.31
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.4, Growth: 2.0%)
$70.33
(+6%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.0%)
$65.19
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 2.0%)
$55.41
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.27
Bull Case
$98.75
(+49%)
Analyst growth 36.3%, PE expands to 31.9
Base Case
$89.77
(+35%)
Market implied 36.3%, PE stable at 29.0
Bear Case
$44.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ALRM)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Mar 25, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A financial analyst found a bullish StockTwits message about $ALRM, a cloud-based security and automation solutions provider, and a news article discussing its impressive fundamentals but potential risks. The article highlighted ALRM's strong growth in data processing, subpar billings growth, and efficient cost management.
Key Retail Themes:
ALRM's strong growth in data processing and cloud-based platforms
Concerns about the company's billings growth and customer trends
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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