ALRM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRM - Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
$54.75
0.53 (0.98%)
▲
5d:
+5.74%
30d:
+12.89%
90d:
+23.28%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALRM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALRM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.60
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRM is currently trading at $54.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.36 to $54.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (16.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $56.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALRM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $56.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALRM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$48.36 -
$54.05
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.5% growth with 11.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.36 -
$54.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.95
Resistance Level
$56.17
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.43
Wall Street Target
$60.00
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.3%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 16.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.67
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$58.65
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$60.70
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$54.69
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 7.1%)
$75.62
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 7.1%)
$67.21
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.7, Growth: 7.1%)
$57.13
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.41
Bull Case
$73.54
(+34%)
Analyst growth 23.3%, PE expands to 24.8
Base Case
$66.85
(+22%)
Market implied 23.3%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$36.87
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Christopher Bradley
SELL
1510 shares
2026-03-18
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