AMPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMPH - Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$19.29
0.57 (3.04%)
▲
5d:
-1.63%
30d:
-4.93%
90d:
-5.3%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMPH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMPH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.98
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.86
2.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMPH is currently trading at $19.29, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.99 to $20.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.52, while resistance sits at $21.23. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+14.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.52, while resistance sits at $21.23. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+14.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$18.99 -
$20.60
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($22.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.99 -
$20.60
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.52
Resistance Level
$21.24
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.35
Wall Street Target
$22.00
(+14.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-72.5%
Profit Margin
11.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.04
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$18.79
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$18.55
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$19.29
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.7%)
$102.67
(+432%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 15.7%)
$29.92
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 15.7%)
$25.43
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.66
Bull Case
$37.71
(+96%)
Analyst growth 83.1%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$34.28
(+78%)
Market implied 83.1%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$12.73
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 6.6
Stabilization Target:
$20.06
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 9:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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