AMPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMPH - Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$21.60
-0.08 (-0.37%)
▼
5d:
+3.3%
30d:
+14.47%
90d:
+18.94%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AMPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.61
Based on -3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMPH is currently trading at $21.60, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.41 to $20.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (6.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.1% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $22.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMPH scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $22.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMPH scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$19.41 -
$20.97
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($22.50)
- BEARISH: Market expects 7.1% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.41 -
$20.97
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.55
Resistance Level
$22.20
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.18
Wall Street Target
$22.50
(+4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.1% premium
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 6.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.13
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$24.78
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$26.54
(+23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.73
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -11.2%)
$38.63
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: -11.2%)
$15.75
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: -11.2%)
$12.89
(-40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.69
Bull Case
$37.25
(+73%)
Analyst growth 56.2%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$33.87
(+57%)
Market implied 56.2%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$14.74
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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