Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMPH - Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$26.04
-0.16 (-0.61%)
▼
5d:
-1.44%
30d:
+4.33%
90d:
+39.1%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMPH trades at premium valuation expecting 11.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: AMPH trades at premium valuation expecting 11.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.70
Based on -3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.75
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMPH is currently trading at $26.04, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.52 to $26.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.9) compared to its historical average (7.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.2% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $22.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $22.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$24.52 -
$26.55
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 13.6% above Wall St target ($22.50)
- BEARISH: Market expects 11.2% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (54/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.52 -
$26.55
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.51
Resistance Level
$27.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.86
Wall Street Target
$22.50
(-13.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+11.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 7.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+11.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.96
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$32.20
(+24%)
3-Year Target
$35.81
(+38%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.14
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -11.2%)
$38.22
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: -11.2%)
$18.98
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: -11.2%)
$13.86
(-47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.69
Bull Case
$44.57
(+70%)
Analyst growth 56.2%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$40.52
(+55%)
Market implied 56.2%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$17.64
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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