AMPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMPH - Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$19.53
1.20 (6.55%)
▲
5d:
-0.91%
30d:
+7.54%
90d:
+1.56%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.17
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.22
8.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMPH is currently trading at $19.53, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.01 to $19.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.2) is in line with its historical norms (6.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.22, while resistance sits at $20.77. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMPH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.83 (+16.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.22, while resistance sits at $20.77. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMPH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.83 (+16.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$18.01 -
$19.86
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($22.83)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.01 -
$19.86
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.22
Resistance Level
$20.77
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.21
Wall Street Target
$22.83
(+16.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-72.5%
Profit Margin
11.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.12
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$18.72
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$18.33
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$19.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.2%)
$110.30
(+465%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 17.2%)
$31.47
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 17.2%)
$26.75
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.66
Bull Case
$38.17
(+95%)
Analyst growth 89.3%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$34.70
(+78%)
Market implied 89.3%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$12.46
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 6.6
Stabilization Target:
$20.74
(+6.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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