Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMPH - Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$25.19
-0.17 (-0.65%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.62%
30d:
+6.09%
90d:
+28.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AMPH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 11.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AMPH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 11.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.27
Based on -3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMPH is currently trading at $25.18, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.45 to $25.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.6) compared to its historical average (7.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.2% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.45, while resistance sits at $27.80.
Market Sentiment: AMPH scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $22.50. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.45, while resistance sits at $27.80.
Market Sentiment: AMPH scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $22.50. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$22.45 -
$25.45
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 11.2% above Wall St target ($22.50)
- BEARISH: Market expects 11.2% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.45 -
$25.45
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.45
Resistance Level
$27.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.60
Wall Street Target
$22.50
(-11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+11.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 7.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+11.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.19
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$31.35
(+24%)
3-Year Target
$34.86
(+38%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â7)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.41
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -11.2%)
$39.26
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: -11.2%)
$18.48
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: -11.2%)
$13.47
(-47%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.69
Bull Case
$44.35
(+75%)
Analyst growth 56.2%, PE expands to 16.8
Base Case
$40.32
(+59%)
Market implied 56.2%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$17.55
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 1:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
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