A.O. Smith (AOS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOS - A.O. Smith Corporation
$61.65
-0.82 (-1.31%)
▼
5d:
+4.1%
30d:
+6.85%
90d:
-1.27%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AOS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AOS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.51
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOS is currently trading at $61.65, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.33 to $59.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $62.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AOS scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $62.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AOS scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$56.33 -
$59.39
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AOS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($66.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$56.33 -
$59.39
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.88
Resistance Level
$62.61
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.29
Wall Street Target
$66.20
(+7.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
13.2%
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 15.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.65
(0%)
2-Year Target
$61.65
(0%)
3-Year Target
$61.65
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$61.70
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.5%)
$102.19
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 8.5%)
$78.65
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 8.5%)
$66.85
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.59
Bull Case
$77.20
(+25%)
Analyst growth 12.3%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$70.18
(+14%)
Market implied 12.3%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$42.48
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 9:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AOS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AOS price and gamma walls.
