AOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOS - A.O. Smith Corporation
$62.72
-0.36 (-0.57%)
âŧ
5d:
+2.15%
30d:
+3.19%
90d:
+9.5%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AOS is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AOS is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$87.42
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOS is currently trading at $62.72, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.02 to $63.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOS is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $64.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $69.91 (+11.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOS is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $64.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $69.91 (+11.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$60.02 -
$63.33
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AOS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($69.91)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$60.02 -
$63.33
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$60.56
Resistance Level
$64.09
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.33
Wall Street Target
$69.91
(+11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.47
(0%)
2-Year Target
$62.22
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$61.97
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â16)
$62.65
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 9.3%)
$107.04
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 9.3%)
$81.85
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 9.3%)
$69.58
(+11%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.59
Bull Case
$79.06
(+26%)
Analyst growth 13.9%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$71.88
(+15%)
Market implied 13.9%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$42.89
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.3 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$63.40
(+1.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 11:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Darrell W Schuh
SELL
1104 shares
2026-03-04
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