AppFolio (APPF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$221.53
-3.32 (-1.48%)
âŧ
5d:
-5.01%
30d:
+9.03%
90d:
+8.48%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
Protect APPF Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (51%)
Quality Score
49/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$202.57 â $225.57
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
27.0x
FAIR
vs 24.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$245.91
+9.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$207.97 / $241.49
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: APPF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$368.46
Based on 12.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$228.78
3.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APPF is currently trading at $221.53, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $202.57 to $225.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 27.0) compared to its historical average (24.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APPF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $207.97, while resistance sits at $241.49.
Market Sentiment: APPF scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APPF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $207.97, while resistance sits at $241.49.
Market Sentiment: APPF scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$202.57 -
$225.57
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$202.57 -
$225.57
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$16.22
(7.3%)
Support Level
$207.97
Resistance Level
$241.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($245.91)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.04
Wall Street Target
$245.91
(+9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.7%
Profit Margin
15.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
27.0 vs 24.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$232.49
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$240.40
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$248.57
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27â25)
PE COMPRESSION
$225.24
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.0, Growth: 21.5%)
$403.07
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.5%)
$296.06
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 21.5%)
$251.65
(+12%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.75
Bull Case
$432.85
(+93%)
Analyst growth 75.1%, PE expands to 52.1
Base Case
$393.50
(+75%)
Market implied 75.1%, PE stable at 47.3
Bear Case
$152.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (APPF)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 24, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
The latest article from Yahoo Finance features research calls from top Wall Street analysts, with upgrades for Verisk Analytics, PayPal, AT&T, Ameren, and Duke Energy, and a downgrade for Norwegian Cruise Line. The article does not mention $APPF.
Key Retail Themes:
Wall Street research calls
Upgrades for select stocks
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 PM
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