AR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AR - ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION
$36.14
0.84 (2.38%)
▲
5d:
+2.44%
30d:
+3.52%
90d:
-7.95%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.23
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AR is currently trading at $36.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.77 to $35.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.4) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 160.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.45 (+34.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.45 (+34.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$33.77 -
$35.25
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.1% below Wall St target ($48.45)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.77 -
$35.25
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.89
Resistance Level
$36.17
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.41
Wall Street Target
$48.45
(+34.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
160.6%
Profit Margin
17.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.56
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$34.99
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$34.43
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$36.01
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 6.0%)
$106.16
(+194%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 6.0%)
$43.09
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 6.0%)
$36.63
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.09
Bull Case
$53.97
(+49%)
Analyst growth 39.0%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$49.06
(+36%)
Market implied 39.0%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$24.00
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$37.79
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 1:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Benjamin A Hardesty
SELL
12000 shares
2026-03-19
Yvette K Schultz
SELL
15000 shares
2026-03-09
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