ANTERO RESOURCES (AR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AR - ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION
$38.43
-0.74 (-1.89%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.17%
30d:
+2.53%
90d:
+12.3%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $39.41 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.98
16.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AR is currently trading at $38.43, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.23 to $39.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $38.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AR scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.95 (+30.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $38.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AR scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.95 (+30.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$36.23 -
$39.15
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
43.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (22/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.0% below Wall St target ($49.95)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.23 -
$39.15
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.25
Resistance Level
$40.21
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.89
Wall Street Target
$49.95
(+30.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
79.9%
Profit Margin
18.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.55
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$38.66
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$38.78
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â9)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.37
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 62.9%)
$88.82
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 62.9%)
$39.16
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 62.9%)
$33.29
(-13%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.49
Bull Case
$53.35
(+39%)
Analyst growth 23.8%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$48.50
(+26%)
Market implied 23.8%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$26.64
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 10:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Benjamin A Hardesty
SELL
12000 shares
2026-03-19
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Advanced AR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AR price and gamma walls.
